🏅 Top traders

So when does 48 hours end?

@wilsonkime https://manifold.markets/MichaelWheatley/will-donald-trump-be-arrested-in-th#1pUrI9e6HnTleEL5tfoP

@wilsonkime My plan is midnight tonight.

@MichaelWheatley uh, EST.

Which now that I look at it I'll grant is kind of arbitrary.

If this story is true then Trump definitely thinks he is going to get arrested immediately following the election. Otherwise it makes zero sense. But we will have to see if it happens or not.

Seems to me there is a good chance he is already indicted under seal and he knows it.

@BTE Put your mana where your mouth is. I see that four days ago you sold YES down to 1%...

@Boklam Today I bought it up to 10. It’s not so stupid to sell down to 1% when you have a $500 limit order set at 5%. I also had one at 2%, 3%, 4%. I have a position approaching $10,000 in this market. But thanks for the tip.

@Boklam Plus maybe you are unaware, but this market was inspired by my comment on another market where I have much more bet that Trump is gonna be indicted. I have like $25K mana riding on it actually. Does that count as putting my mana where my mouth is?

@Boklam Happy to take your challenge bet if you want to take the other side.

@BTE But if he declares today I'd expect the authorities to wait a few more days before arresting him.

@MartinRandall Maybe, but just because of the election?? If he declares today it is almost like he extended the election past tomorrow and made it indefinite. The press doesn't have to cover his ranting today, but as soon as he declares everything he says will be on all of the news networks. But I guess that is also true after he is indicted. Idk, I think it was a mistake not to have arrested him already.

The GOP insiders are apparently all expecting it with a couple weeks if the election. https://apple.news/AKdLX_NSxRmKC3NvtbedlYg

Does this resolve Yes if he is arrested prior to the mid terms, released, and then arrested again immediately after the mid terms?

@MartinRandall I'm going to say yes. That edge case seems so unlikely that it's worth sticking to the exact wording in the title rather than muddy things up.

@MichaelWheatley And this is 48 hours from close of polls?

@MartinRandall I think it should start at 12am on the 9th. Two full days after the election.

Either of these definitions seem reasonable to me!

A bunch of my NO is grounded in that even conditional on the relevant bodies waiting until after the midterms, I'd expect them to take more than two days to act after- if I was to hold a flat distribution over the subsequent week, 48 hours is only 2/7, and in fact my distribution is weighted a bit away from the first two days while the results are still being announced. So expanding the window or moving it much away from the first two days after would shift odds on my model. But counting "the elections" as the day of the election seems fair enough.

I think the window should be 48 hours long, but otherwise agree with Beshir.

This is where I want auto expiring limit orders.

@Gigacasting

Prompt: "Scrooge McDuck swimming in his money bin"

@Gigacasting You gotta share the prompt!!