Polymarket gives Michelle Obama a 6% chance of being the Democratic Presidential Nominee, and likewise a 6% chance of being the next president.

You might scoff at those numbers, but you're just a Manifold trader. Polymarketers bet real money. Surely they're onto something?

Unironically though, it would be a cakewalk for her, right?

Resolves YES if Michelle Obama wins the election, NO if she doesn't. Resolves NA on the night of the election if Michelle Obama is still not the nominee.