If Michelle Obama is the Democratic candidate, would she win the election?
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Polymarket gives Michelle Obama a 6% chance of being the Democratic Presidential Nominee, and likewise a 6% chance of being the next president.

You might scoff at those numbers, but you're just a Manifold trader. Polymarketers bet real money. Surely they're onto something?

Unironically though, it would be a cakewalk for her, right?

Resolves YES if Michelle Obama wins the election, NO if she doesn't. Resolves NA on the night of the election if Michelle Obama is still not the nominee.

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election
#2024 US Election
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Rules don't say which Democratic nomination. There are tens of thousands.

@MaybeNotDepends I suppose the tag says presidential election. But if you are serious about rules writing, I recommend including specifics in the rules.

@MaybeNotDepends I've added it.

Manifold currently has her at 1.5% chance of winning the election, and 'Other' (including Michelle) at 1.5% chance of winning Dem nomination 🙂

Arbitrate:

reposted

I’ve been wondering the same thing myself!

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