Top forecasters speculate that despite verification from the site admins, @LexFridman may not be the real Lex Fridman. This market will not resolve until DEFINITIVE proof emerges.
Such proof would need to originate from an official channel, such as confirmation on Lex's twitter, podcast, etc.
Related questions
@MarcelloDomenis Back then, yes, 5 months have passed. Still under his control? Someone got his API key?
@DavidChee Was it back in January or anytime recently? IPs match? My suspicion here is that somebody has unauthorized access to the account(API key or a spoofed web token), not that it was originally created as a fake.
@42irrationalist took very quick glance and nothing obvious to suggest unauthorised access. But doesnt rly discount the possibilities mira suggested
@Mira If Lex says it's a fake on his social media, that would count as official disproof. If the manifold account claims to be a fake I guess that would count?
@MichaelWheatley Since some time has passed now, I feel like a claim by the manifold account that it's fake shouldn't be sufficient on its own to resolve this. In the same way that the main NO hypothesis here is that it was a real account but it might have been hacked since then, we could argue that it was still real at the point of market creation and it's been hacked afterwards. There's also some incentive to try and do that as it stands which doesn't seem like a big deal but still would be nice not to be there.
@NamesAreHard To clarify my statement a bit, (I was already a bit worried about it being misread), the "I guess" and the question mark are meant to indicate that in principle while it might be enough to resolve, it's a bit borderline so it won't be entirely automatic.
The Lex account was only active for a brief period, to go on a market manipulation and insider trading spree. So based on that past behaviour I'd be concerned that such an admission is more market manipulation and insider trading. I assume it's unlikely that Lex would falsely claim to be an impostor just to rig this market for a few hundred mana, but on the other hand, such an admission would be immediately followed by the site admins trying to investigate the truth of the claims, so I would feel no pressure to resolve this ASAP, since I would expect to hear in two days time what happened when David got Lex on the phone to ask what's up.
@MichaelWheatley Sounds good and I wasn't really worried, just thought of that scenario today and figured it would be better to discuss it now instead of in the eventuality where it has already happened.