The Collinses received a profile in the Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/article/2024/may/25/american-pronatalists-malcolm-and-simone-collins
which prompted a lot of social media debate about whether they are bad parents or not. Let's bet on it.

Resolution is several decades out so bet at your own risk. Long-term bets are presently not incentive-compatible and i expect to refine the resolution criteria over the next several months.

Each child will be judged based on their status on their 30th birthday. The Collinses are awarded one point for each child with 1+ "Good Outcomes" and lose one point for each child with 1+ "Bad Outcomes." Resolves to 50% if the final score is 0. Feel free to suggest outcomes for either list.

"Good" Outcomes:

• Has a PhD

• 100k social media followers/subscribers on any platform

• Millionaire (non-inherited)

• 3+ children

• Won any "significant" awards. Knighthood, Bronze Star, Hugo Award, Oscar, etc.

"Bad" Outcomes:

• Are estranged from parents/have been disowned/has filed for emancipation/did not call Simone for Mothers' Day, etc.

• Has ever been imprisoned

• Convicted of 3+ crimes

• Negative net worth

• NEET (with <$500 million in the bank)

• Inpatient at psychiatric hospital

• Has children without presently being in a marriage/LTR (widows/widowers are fine)

• Has died in an accident or from any disease for which there are known prophylactic measures which were not taken.

I received Simone Collins' permission to create this market, but invite her to request changes to the criteria lists.

THE FINE PRINT

• Monetary values adjusted for inflation