Update on US military/ CIA: this market was resolved early then unresolved. I will now wait to resolve it until the market closes in 30 days. At that point I will make my best judgement based on the available evidence. If I were to make that call as of Feb 27, I would say it was not an official US govt mission. I will not bet on this market.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c24drvj8yl2o
From the article:
Four people on a US-registered speedboat were shot and killed after being intercepted in Cuban waters, Cuba's government said.
In a statement, Cuba's interior ministry said that the speedboat's passengers opened fire on a coast guard vessel that approached them.
Six additional passengers were wounded in the incident, which took place near an island on Cuba's northern coast.
The identity of those on board the vessel or what it was doing in the area are unclear, with the Cuban government saying an investigation has been launched to "clarify" the event.
In statement posted on X via the Cuban Embassy in the US, the Interior Ministry said that the Florida-registered vessel - with the registration number FL7726SH - was detected near Cayo Falcones, in the country's central Villa Clara province on Wednesday morning.
When a Cuban boat carrying five members of the ministry's border guard approached the vessel for identification, "the crew of the violating speedboat opened fire" and wounded the Cuban commander, the statement said.
"As a consequence of the confrontation, as of the time of this report, four aggressors on the foreign vessel were killed and six injured," the statement added.
1,000@ChurlishGambit there’s some merit to what you’re saying but Marco Rubio said in no uncertain terms that it was not an official governmental mission and the Cuban government announced it was Cuban citizens living in the United States.
I probably shouldn’t have mentioned cia without clearer criteria around how I would handle a case where a secret mission remains secret.
I did not bet on this market and it seems as clear to me as it will be which is why I resolved it.
@MichaelLipman Well the government never lies to cover up CIA operations, right?
Why not just ask a mod to un-resolve it, and wait for the deadline you set when you made the market? See what info we have then? It's not really reasonable to resolve it so immediately based on what could be a lie.
@ChurlishGambit I can do that. I will ask to unresolve it now and then resolve it in 30 days with my best interpretation of the available evidence. I will not bet on this market.
@mods i would like to unresolve this as described above with plans to resolve it when it closes in 30 days
@MichaelLipman looks like it’s been unresolved, thank you mods. I will continue to not bet that one. Though if no new significant evidence comes out I plan on resolving it when the market closes as no.
For the escalation one I feel comfortable resolving that as no now since the deadline there was Feb 26.
"Early news reports in the United States indicated the speedboat was part of a flotilla of an undetermined number of boats. Updated intelligence now confirms just a single boat was attacked. The vessel attacked was not from the United States Coast Guard or Navy, which an American official added did not have any boats in the area of the shootings."