Very few observers expect Kamala Harris to lose the state of New York in the 2024 Presidential Election. She could however win New York by a historically small margin.
This questions resolves YES if Kamala Harris's fraction of total votes is at least 0.2 larger than Donald Trump's fraction of total votes.
For example, if Harris receives 56%, Trump receives 36%, and third parties/write-ins receive 8%, this question resolves YES.
Ballots that do not include any vote for President are not counted.
This question will resolve on election night if the initial count answers the question with mathematical certainty. If the initial count finds a margin between 19-21%, this question will be extended until the results are certified by New York State.
1,000
3.00The latest Siena poll of New York State has Kamala Harris leading by just 12 points in a 6-way race, and 13 points in a 2-way race. https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/SNY0924-Crosstabs.pdf
To motivate some "NO" trades: Siena College, one of the highest quality pollsters in the U.S., polls New York State during presidential election years. In late July, the 2-way margin was D+14 and the 6-way margin was D+12. Source: https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/SNY0724-Crosstabs.pdf
