La Rochelle Bingo : what will I experience/encounter during my trip ? (add options) (+side bounty)
Sep 1
Go to the gym
Taste a local specialty
Visit the Marché de la Rochelle
Play a FIDE-rated chess game
Go to a movie theater
Meet a Manifold user
Get on a boat
See a film at the Festival International du Film de la Rochelle (28/6 - 7/7)
Oliver grows a new leaf
Go kitesurfing
Take part in a karaoke
Get a haircut
Walk 30k steps in a day
Play Tennis
Take a singing lesson or learn a song from someone
Get attacked by a bird
Attend a TED or TEDx talk
Find a large seashell (must completely fill the palm of my hand)

Inspired by @shankypanky's, @Joshua's, @strutheo's and @Conflux's bingo markets.

I'll be in La Rochelle (France) for an internship. Feel free to add options or suggest options in comments. (If you add an option you'll get the trader bonuses on that option. If I add it, I'm paying the creation cost, but also keeping the bonuses).

I may bet on this market.

💸 Bounty 💸 : For nice things I'll be glad I did afterwards and would not have thought of without suggestions, I may award tips (likely in the range 10 - 100 M per cool thing). Both comments and direct addition of options will make you eligible ; if you add a nice option yourself please leave a comment so that I can easily tip later.

Relevant bits :

  • I'm arriving at March 31st, and will be staying for 5 months (until August 25th-ish)

  • I'm a chemistry grad and math undergrad student, and the internship is part of the mandatory things for my chemistry school.

  • I will go back to Paris at least once in May, and for this market what happens in Paris stays in Paris - ie if not self-evident or specified otherwise, experiences and encounters in Paris will, by default, not trigger any resolution on this market.

  • By default, what happens nearby La Rochelle counts for this market - for example anything happening while I'm visiting a neighbouring city.

  • Feel free to add things that can happen without my intention/intervention like "encounter a protest" or "see someone walk into a wall"

Policy on junk / obvious / ... options is "try me at your own risks". (Yeah, if you add "drink water" and put 10k M on "no" there's a certain chance I put all my balance on "yes", go drink some water, and take your mana). However, I do like fun things (subjectively defined, oops) so don't get afraid unless you're thinking about some seriously low-level unfunny trolling. For options that feel too intimate to disclose, what I do will depend on the specifics. I may N/A immediately, I may comment "I will flip a coin X times at market close, resolve to the opposite of the truth if it's all tails, and resolve honestly otherwise" (in which case I commit not to buy or sell any shares after starting flipping the coins), or anything else that comes to my mind.

As usual, feel free to ask questions.

Get Ṁ600 play money
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Go to the gym

Just went to the nearest gym to see their plans. The place looks good, the girl at the entrance who explained me the deal was really nice and professional, but the prices are outrageous. They just removed their 70€/10 entrances pass, now the best deal I can get is 150€ for 3 months and the ‘coaches’ can only explain us the proper use and movements on a specific machine but are not allowed to follow us individually, give us a workout plan etc. May still go around to see if I can find a better deal somewhere else though.

Go to the gym

Considering how bad my crush just burnt me, some people who spend too much type on the internet and see too many memes would bet this up

bought Ṁ50 Go to the gym YES

@Mich oh no I don't like the sound of this!

(but also, I do like the sound of the gym part mostly because it (hopefully) feels good)

@shankypanky Love the way you bet on this market ! Somehow I’m supposed to be the insider but you send more powerful insider trading vibes than I do. I mean 90%, even I wouldn’t have bet that much up. But you may be right lmao. Plus now I almost feel morally obligated to make this resolve YES.

@Mich if it were something awful I wouldn't encourage it but getting a little movement at the gym has no downsides! haha

( @traders : just created my only market with more options than this one. That other market really gets interesting only if there are traders and users who add options on it. Its current options are meant to resolve long enough before the pivot so that you can get your payout and do something with eat before mana gets decimated. Right now there’s almost no one betting on it. May I have some input about it ? Like is it underrated or is it just uninteresting ?)

Visit the Marché de la Rochelle
bought Ṁ20 Visit the Marché de ... YES

Could happen today

bought Ṁ20 Answer #461a83a8ef3e YES

Looks like it’s happening today !

@Mich enjoy!

(@shankypanky @TheAllMemeingEye : since mana transfers may soon cease to exist, (plus anyway the devaluation that is going to take place is awful - even if mana transfers were not suppressed, waiting for May and tipping you the amount that I mentioned would be a damned fraud, and adjusting for devaluation would blow up more than my current balance) I tipped you something around the expected value of what I think I would have tipped if there were no upcoming pivot and I could have waited for my options to resolve before tipping)

@Mich thanks so much Mich! very generous of you 🧡

@shankypanky You're welcome. Thanks for your contributions to this market. It's a fun one and your contributions are part of the reasons it's fun. There's a chance that I proximately quit Manifold but still maintain this market. (Probably while having < 2000M net worth due to sooncoming donations which is gonna be weird after making it to temporary #1 Diamond without ever buying Mana but that's another topic)

@Mich Thanks :)

Take a singing lesson or learn a song from someone
bought Ṁ1 Take a singing lesso... NO

@shankypanky thanks for the input !

I think that’s unlikely given that I was still not able to find dance classes here that suit me, and would really like to, while singing is a priori not among my goals. But who knows ? After all, I have previously suggested “try something new” in one of your bounties haha. May not be among the top things I’ll try to resolve YES as hard as I can, but if there’s a clear occasion then why not.

@Mich maybe I can adjust to also include learning a song - that means it wouldn't have to be a formal lesson, but maybe someone you meet just teaches you a song and it could happen spontaneously or in a more casual way!

@Mich also: thanks for the input and saying where you stand on this/the likelihood! :)

@shankypanky Yeah that would maybe make the option likelier overall. But my remark that it’s not very likely is more of an (epistemic) observation that anything else, it doesn’t mean it’s not a good suggestion. I think both versions (only formal lesson / learning to sing a song) are interesting, you can update the title however you prefer ^^

Karaoke, Row, Seashell inspired by @TheAllMemeingEye

Kitesurf was suggested by a friend, will try to make that happen

Option suggestion: hear someone singing (La), row a boat (Ro), or find a large seashell (chelle)

@TheAllMemeingEye Thanks that’s a funny suggestion !

I won’t place the first one because it would flash-resolve to YES (already happened). How large would the shell need to be to qualify as large ?

@Mich Fair enough, regarding the shell I'm thinking at least large enough that it completely fills the palm of your hand

Get attacked by a bird

This kinda sh*t actually happens and is even considered a problem by HSE. However I don’t really know the baseline probability

My calibration is not dying. Not here, not today.

I didn’t intend it to be a short fuse but it may be one 🥵

bought Ṁ60 Answer #b7f270f29268 YES

Planning to go to Ré on Sunday with friends from the place I’m doing my internship in. Meteo forecast is great so far.