(How well) Will Manifold correctly predict the month when Jimmy Carter dies ?
11
77
1k
6666
33%
chance

After Jimmy Carter dies, I’ll take a look at the record of the top market of the type « Will Jimmy Carter survive/die [this month] ». Let X = 1 if that market resolves YES, X = 0 if it resolves NO. (Depends on how the question was phrased (die / survive))

Let p be the probability of that market right before it collapses/skyrockets/panics due to the news that Jimmy Carter died being spread. (Basically I’m eliminating predicting the past stuff)

I will resolve this market to 1 - |X-p| (multiplied by 100% to express it as a percentage)

In case picking p may be conflictual, I will not trade here.

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@Mich what is the "top market"?

@duck_master The one with the most activity or the highest number of traders or the first shown by the search tool among the ones of the aforementioned type. Like now it would be this one :

@duck_master As I am writing these lines, it’s at 96%. If Carter’s death were to be announced now, the embed market would resolve NO so X = 0. We would have p = 0.96 so |X-p| = 0.96 so 1-|X-p| = 0.04

Therefore, Jimmy Carter passing out while I’m posting this would make my market resolve at 4%.

Do odds changes from news that he has become severely ill but hasn't died yet, like with Queen Elizabeth, also get excluded?

@TheAllMemeingEye No, this doesn’t get excluded.