After Jimmy Carter dies, I’ll take a look at the record of the top market of the type « Will Jimmy Carter survive/die [this month] ». Let X = 1 if that market resolves YES, X = 0 if it resolves NO. (Depends on how the question was phrased (die / survive))

Let p be the probability of that market right before it collapses/skyrockets/panics due to the news that Jimmy Carter died being spread. (Basically I’m eliminating predicting the past stuff)

I will resolve this market to 1 - |X-p| (multiplied by 100% to express it as a percentage)

In case picking p may be conflictual, I will not trade here.

• Update 2024-31-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Clarification:

  • The market will resolve at 1% as confirmed by the creator.