After Jimmy Carter dies, I’ll take a look at the record of the top market of the type « Will Jimmy Carter survive/die [this month] ». Let X = 1 if that market resolves YES, X = 0 if it resolves NO. (Depends on how the question was phrased (die / survive))
Let p be the probability of that market right before it collapses/skyrockets/panics due to the news that Jimmy Carter died being spread. (Basically I’m eliminating predicting the past stuff)
I will resolve this market to 1 - |X-p| (multiplied by 100% to express it as a percentage)
In case picking p may be conflictual, I will not trade here.
Update 2024-31-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Clarification:
The market will resolve at 1% as confirmed by the creator.
1,000
3.00🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ271 | |
| 2 | Ṁ123 | |
| 3 | Ṁ51 | |
| 4 | Ṁ34 | |
| 5 | Ṁ19 |
https://manifold.markets/JCDM/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-2024 seems to be the closest market in this category. Given December, I think there were just no markets created with December in name, as opposed to 2024 itself
@binarypigeon In both of those cases, the news was at ~1% before shooting to 100% so this market should resolve at 1%
@duck_master The one with the most activity or the highest number of traders or the first shown by the search tool among the ones of the aforementioned type. Like now it would be this one :
@duck_master As I am writing these lines, it’s at 96%. If Carter’s death were to be announced now, the embed market would resolve NO so X = 0. We would have p = 0.96 so |X-p| = 0.96 so 1-|X-p| = 0.04
Therefore, Jimmy Carter passing out while I’m posting this would make my market resolve at 4%.