From https://metaculus.com/questions/16514/first-time-finalist-wins-2023-pulitzer-prize/

The Pulitzer Prize for Fiction is a prestigious annual award that recognizes outstanding literary works of fiction by American authors, typically dealing with American life. Established in 1917 by the provisions in the will of Joseph Pulitzer, a Hungarian-American newspaper publisher, the award has become a significant milestone in the careers of many acclaimed writers. The winner is chosen by a 17-member board, comprising distinguished journalists, academics, and literary figures, who evaluate the submissions based on their artistic merit, thematic relevance, and cultural impact.

Predicting the winner of the Pulitzer Prize is difficult. Unlike other awards, there is no shortlist and finalists are not announced ahead of time.

Repeat winners are rare. There have only been four, most recently Colson Whitehead, who won in 2017 for The Underground Railroad and again in 2020 for The Nickel Boys.

It's more common for winners to be previous finalists. For instance, 2021's winner, Louise Erdich, was a finalist in 2009, and 2019's winner, Richard Power, was a finalist in 2007.