Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 by the end of 2022?
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226Ṁ7485resolved Jan 7
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From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9207/china-covid-deaths-to-exceed-50k/
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm
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Beijing reports two more deaths. This makes the news.
If you trust China's own numbers, they seem well past the Omicron peak, with hardly any deaths to show for it https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/china
Zvi on whether China's current containment procedures suffice: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5Dp42yvzBTGxJwcc3/omicron-16-danger-in-china
The key question here is not so much whether it will happen, but whether it will be reported.