Metaculus resolved ambiguous - resolving N/A here in response.

What will you use as a source?

@JimAusman This will resolve as the Metaculus question linked in the description does. From that market:

“To determine resolution, Metaculus Admins will consider reports by the Ukrainian and Russian governments, other governments such as the US or the UN, and credible media reports and experts in the conflict. Resolution will be determined by information available by March 1, 2024 (or earlier, if information is sufficiently clear).”

Likely should resolve yes

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/12/ukraine-war-likely-to-stretch-past-2023-purported-us-documents#:~:text=Ukraine%20has%20suffered%20124%2C500%20to,Assessed%20Combat%20Sustainability%20and%20Attrition%E2%80%9D.

Ukraine war likely to stretch past 2023: Purported US documents

Unverified US intelligence documents say fighting in Donbas region headed for ‘stalemate’, war casualties much higher.

@NickAllen 15k dead in a year and 6 months left to the end of the year. Seems unlikely unless there are more sources.

I believe this is a no brainer. More than that have been killed by a significant number as of April 2023.