The market will be resolved according to the data from Tradingview: Binance Spot chart [BTC/USD] at the time of the monthly close. The results will be available 24 hours after closing to resolve.
Update 2024-23-12 (PST): The monthly close will be determined using [UTC +13:45] Chatham Islands timezone (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000š Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | į¹47,226 | |
| 2 | į¹34,505 | |
| 3 | į¹10,827 | |
| 4 | į¹4,211 | |
| 5 | į¹2,267 |
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to be crystal clear - iām offering to buy yes at a loss! this market closes in 11 hours (midnight chatham islands time) and bitcoin is at $92.5k. this market should be priced at 0-1%.
if you want 3% EV that resolves 11 hours feel free to buy no!
Seasonality is typically a move higher at the start of Dec, a trough mid month, then a move higher again at the end of the month. But it could just as easily be a move higher early Jan instead š¤
Usually the default is to stick by the close time if it wasn't otherwise mentioned. the fact that you set +13:45 when you're 3rd highest YES holder is hilarious
@Bayesian I'm referring to the stated Chatham Islands Daylight Time timezone (UTC+13:45) first given in this comment (now edited) when asked by @JasonDavies in this same thread, not the market close time (which not always determines the resolution deadline).
@Bayesian I took the creator's choice of the earliest* possible time as a way to signal strong confidence in their YES bet. š¤·āāļø
*[Edit: sorry not the earliest possible, that would be UTC+14 currently observed by the Line Islands of Kiribati (i.e. Christmas Island and a couple other atolls).]
