Will Bitcoin be above $100k at the close of December 2024?
225
10kแน€640k
resolved Dec 31
Resolved
NO

The market will be resolved according to the data from Tradingview: Binance Spot chart [BTC/USD] at the time of the monthly close. The results will be available 24 hours after closing to resolve.

  • Update 2024-23-12 (PST): The monthly close will be determined using [UTC +13:45] Chatham Islands timezone (AI summary of creator comment)

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4mo

Congratulations to all NO holders. Interesting few months ahead for bitcoin ๐Ÿค”

4mo

resolves no!

4mo

@MerleBtc

The results will be available 24 hours after closing to resolve.

Ah alright, I'd missed that part. Carry on.

4mo

to be crystal clear - iโ€™m offering to buy yes at a loss! this market closes in 11 hours (midnight chatham islands time) and bitcoin is at $92.5k. this market should be priced at 0-1%.

if you want 3% EV that resolves 11 hours feel free to buy no!

Seasonality is typically a move higher at the start of Dec, a trough mid month, then a move higher again at the end of the month. But it could just as easily be a move higher early Jan instead ๐Ÿค”

4mo

Which timezone? UTC?

4mo

lol. lmao even.

4mo

Usually the default is to stick by the close time if it wasn't otherwise mentioned. the fact that you set +13:45 when you're 3rd highest YES holder is hilarious

4mo

@Bayesian lol I'm starting to think you have too much free time

4mo

@MerleBtc it's finally christmas break bro ๐Ÿ˜ญ but could you revert it back to UTC or UTC+1

4mo

@Bayesian why are you asking for more time, which benefits YES holders? EoY UTC+13:45 happens earlier, not later. ๐Ÿคฆโ€โ™‚๏ธ

I formally request a change back to originally stated as my bets were based on that creator-given info.

4mo

@deagol hahahaha I had not realized

4mo

@deagol what was the originally stated time?

@Bayesian I'm referring to the stated Chatham Islands Daylight Time timezone (UTC+13:45) first given in this comment (now edited) when asked by @JasonDavies in this same thread, not the market close time (which not always determines the resolution deadline).

4mo

@deagol lmaoo

@Bayesian I took the creator's choice of the earliest* possible time as a way to signal strong confidence in their YES bet. ๐Ÿคทโ€โ™‚๏ธ

*[Edit: sorry not the earliest possible, that would be UTC+14 currently observed by the Line Islands of Kiribati (i.e. Christmas Island and a couple other atolls).]

4mo

@deagol I thought he was just living in NZ and it was his local tz ๐Ÿ˜‚

4mo

@Bayesian @Choms @deagol The final time zone will be [UTC +13:45] Chatham Islands :

4mo

what a great idea merle!

4mo

@MerleBtc thanks! ๐Ÿ‘ how you say Happy New Year in NZ? ah I found this for Maori: tau hou hari, or nga mihi o te tau hou

4mo

@deagol @MerleBtc @Bayesian Happy New Year

4mo
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