How much volume will Polymarket have on its top 2024 US presidential election market?
Plus
11
58k
2025
3%
< 10 million
·
10mo
0.8%
10 - 20 million
·
10mo
1%
20-40 million
·
10mo
1.1%
40-70 million
·
10mo
1%
70-100 million
·
10mo
1.6%
100-150 million
·
10mo
1.4%
150-200 million
·
10mo
90%
> 200 million
·
10mo

This resolves based on the Polymarket UI and their 2024 US election market with the highest volume. It will resolve on the 2025 inauguration date (so if there are any court case markets or other markets that refer to the 2024 election after this point - they do not count).

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Not relevant to the resolution of this market, but FWIW, I'm very confused by how Polymarket reports its total amount "bet" (i.e. volume). The total at the top (\$132M at the moment) is the sum of totals for the individual options (at least when I last checked). For the individual options, Trump has 16M bet, Biden 15M, and then even tiny fringe options have >5M bet.

I assume the amount "bet" is actually the total payout to that option if they win (it makes no sense that only 16M has been bet on Trump when 10M has been "bet" on AOC, I assume this is a tiny \$ amount bet on AOC at enormous odds). And that's a nonsensical way to compute volume. It makes the total volume a function of the number of tiny niche options involved. It seems like a more intuitive version of volume would be the amount wagered, which looks like more like ~\$16M total, IIUC.

Again, not at all relevant to the resolution of this market, which is about what Polymarket displays on the UI. But when people talk about \$100M+ betting volume on polymarket for the election, I assume they're referring to this number and I don't think they all realize (IIUC) that it's very very different than what most people mean by "betting volume" (and only ~\$16M or so has actually been truly "bet" on this market).

If i'm misreading how polymarket works, LMK

@Ziddletwix I'm a polymarket trader and I don't know how volume works either =) It gets complex because each trade has two sides. So that person buying a share at 0.1 cents has someone else either selling it at 0.1, OR buying No at 99.9 cents. I think the problem is that Polymarket assumes people are buying Nos at 99.9 cents - even when they are selling Yes at 0.1. Not sure.

There is a lot of trading going on at 99.0 - 99.9 cents that is real though.

Or it could be the volume is real. There are 0% fees - so doing a couple million in volume isn't that hard.

AOC volume is high due to a UI bug that caused someone to buy way too many AOC shares (now fixed).

I suppose if we hit \$200 million prior to the election, it can resolve sooner.

@MaybeNotDepends the one below seems on track to hit \$200M by July

The market on the 2020 election got \$10.8M when it closed.