If Trump wins, will RFK Jr be nominated to any cabinet/secretary position in 2025?
➕
Plus
90
Ṁ15k
2026
98.3%
chance

Resolves "yes" if Trump announces his nomination, regardless of whether RFK is ultimately confirmed to the position.

Resolves N/A if Trump does not win.

For clarification, any of these “Positions intermittently elevated to Cabinet-rank” will also count: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States#Positions_intermittently_elevated_to_Cabinet-rank

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

@MaximLott Is the announcement today enough to resolve this YES?

reposted

This is surprisingly low to me:

bought Ṁ50 NO

So... @MaximLott the cabinet is actually somewhat ambiguous and there are certain positions that are sometimes referred to as cabinet positions and sometimes not. Can you clarify which set of positions you are referring to? Wiki article for reference:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States#Positions_intermittently_elevated_to_Cabinet-rank

To make it simpler, there are three relevant sets of positions:
1) The VP and the heads of the 15 executive departments

2) "Cabinet-level positions" (these change depending on the president, but typically include the Ambassador the UN, the Director of the CIA, etc)

3) "Positions Intermittently Elevated to Cabinet-Rank" (these are the ones that sometimes fall into 2 but currently don't because whoever the president is has decided not to, but they may have formerly been or typically are cabinet-level)

@benshindel Thanks. I think it should apply to all of these, which I think is most in the spirit of the question, in terms of Trump giving him an important role. I have updated the description.

reposted

Created this market today:

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules