Will the odds of this market be below 50% at the end of 2024?
Basic
13
Ṁ92Jan 2
49%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will be based on the "chance" of the market at 12:00am, Jan 1, 2025. Resolves "yes" if the chance is strictly below 50%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Note @MaxJiangfbf8 that "by" means "at or before". But since this market only depends on the state of things at the end of 2024, and not before, the use of "by" in the title is confusing. Would suggest changing it to "at the end of 2024"
Related questions
Related questions
Will this market > 50% by the EOY 2024?
61% chance
Will this market close below 50%?
50% chance
Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2026? (Experimental market structure; 90% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)
85% chance
Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2035? (Experimental market structure; 99% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)
46% chance
Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2035? (Experimental market structure; 90% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)
57% chance
Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2026? (Experimental market structure; 99% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)
90% chance
Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2024? (Experimental market structure; 90% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)
96% chance