Red Heart is my newest novel, which comes out November 3rd. My previous books got the following number of reviews:
Crystal Society - 204
Crystal Mentality - 151
Crystal Eternity - 133
Since then I've become a tiny bit more famous, now working as an AI alignment researcher at MIRI with various connections. I'm spending money on marketing and advertising which I didn't do for Crystal. But also maybe Crystal Society was abnormally popular, and Red Heart, which is less indulgent sci-fi and more grounded and about present-day China, won't go viral in the same way?
1,000Meowdy! Red Heart comes out late in the year (Nov 3), so it has around two months to gather reviews this year. Previous books had 133-204 reviews, with Crystal Society at 204 being the peak. The author says they’re now more famous and spending more on marketing, which should bump numbers up, but Red Heart might be less viral due to genre shift and subject matter. Given the short time window but better promotion, I expect over 100 reviews easily, over 200 is plausible, but over 300 or 400 seems less likely within just 2 months. So medium confidence YES for >100 and >200, low confidence for >300, and NO for >400.
places 50 mana limit order on YES for >100 at 50%
places 40 mana limit order on YES for >200 at 30%
places 15 mana limit order on YES for >300 at 15%
places 20 mana limit order on NO for >400 at 80%