https://manifold.markets/MaxE/futarchy-chess-black-turn-4?r=TWF4RQ next market. things are heating up!

Futarchy Chess [Black Turn 4]

Current Position: [image]The highest priced answer at market close will be chosen. All other answers will resolve N/A. The chosen answer will resolve Yes if the player who makes the move ultimately wins, No if they lose, and 50% if the game ends in a draw. Tomorrow, a market will decide the other player's move. Answers must be legal, correctly disambiguated moves. Answers created in the final two hours of the market are ineligible to be chosen. Answers may be edited before anyone bets on them or by me at the start of a market (i will only use this to correct mistakes) and will be treated as their original move if edited outside of these circumstances. Resigning and offering draws are not legal moves. Ties (using the user view, not the api) are broken by (# yes holders - # no holders). Who will win? https://manifold.markets/MaxE/who-will-win-futarchy-chess?r=TWF4RQ Previous moves: 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bc4 Nf6 4. Ng5

Fried liver

@ChristopherRandles black would have to follow along tho

@deagol Well yes, if black for example played Ne7 then I think it would go a different route. So what sensible black alternatives did you have in mind after Ng5?

@ChristopherRandles afaik fried liver by white occurs on move 6, after 4 Ng5 d5 5 exd5 Nxd5!? 6 Nxf7!?. Black can (and probably should) avoid it with move 5 ...Na5 (or Nd4 or b5 see here) instead of Nxd5, or to flip white's script, even earlier with move 4 ...Bc5!? (or Nxe4? here), like jumping from the frying pan into the fire, which might catch white off guard.

Also white always has the last choice, after black's risky 5... Nxd5!? 6 d4! is less crazy and perhaps better, supposedly a Fischer favorite.

@deagol
5 ... Na5
6 Qe2 e5 can only be defended with 6 ... Qe7 then 7 d6 is a problem so 6 ... Nxc4 7 Qxc4 h6 hmm is 8 Nxf7 still a possible sacrifice? anyway yes preferable to fried liver

5 ... Nd4
6 d6

5 ... b5 is only a pawn? playable, better than fried liver anyway

4 ...Bc5 5 Nxf7 Qe7 6 Nxh8 Nxe5 7 O-O

4 ... Nxe4
5 Nxe4 is piece for a pawn up and avoids complications

@ChristopherRandles there's more to all these lines (especially lots of sac tactics and mating threats) not just material valuation. even FL is playable if black knows the exact defense.

@ChristopherRandles responding to your specific suggestions:

5 ... Nd4
6 d6

6 c3 better than d6, because 6...Qxd6 now if 7 Nxf7? Qc6! (forks B and g2)

5 ... b5 is only a pawn?

6 Bxb5 allows Qxd5 also forks B and g2, correct move is Bf1! pretty funny

4 ...Bc5 5 Nxf7 Qe7 6 Nxh8 Nxe5 7 O-O

not Qe7 but 5…Bxf2+! the whole point of Bc5. followed by Nxe4+ then Qh4, nasty attack. white is safer with 5 Bxf7+ instead

4 ... Nxe4
5 Nxe4 is piece for a pawn up and avoids complications

nah, 5…d5 forks them pieces! best here is, once again, 5 Bxf7+

edit: oops forgot the main line

5 ... Na5
6 Qe2 e5 can only be defended with 6 ... Qe7 …

defend e5 with the knight, just 6…Nxc4 7 Qxc4 Qxd5 etc. better for white is 6 Bb5+ c6 7 dxc6