Current Position:
The highest priced answer at market close will be chosen. All other answers will resolve N/A.
The chosen answer will resolve Yes if the player who makes the move ultimately wins, No if they lose, and 50% if the game ends in a draw.
Tomorrow, a market will decide the other player's move.
Answers must be legal, correctly disambiguated moves. Answers created in the final two hours of the market are ineligible to be chosen.
Answers may be edited before anyone bets on them or by me at the start of a market (i will only use this to correct mistakes) and will be treated as their original move if edited outside of these circumstances.
Resigning and offering draws are not legal moves.
Ties (using the user view, not the api) are broken by (# yes holders - # no holders).
Who will win? https://manifold.markets/MaxE/who-will-win-futarchy-chess?r=TWF4RQ
Previous moves:
1. e4 e5
2. Nf3 Nc6
3. Bc4 Nf6
1,000People are also trading
@deagol Well yes, if black for example played Ne7 then I think it would go a different route. So what sensible black alternatives did you have in mind after Ng5?
@ChristopherRandles afaik fried liver by white occurs on move 6, after 4 Ng5 d5 5 exd5 Nxd5!? 6 Nxf7!?. Black can (and probably should) avoid it with move 5 ...Na5 (or Nd4 or b5 see here) instead of Nxd5, or to flip white's script, even earlier with move 4 ...Bc5!? (or Nxe4? here), like jumping from the frying pan into the fire, which might catch white off guard.
Also white always has the last choice, after black's risky 5... Nxd5!? 6 d4! is less crazy and perhaps better, supposedly a Fischer favorite.