Matthew Slotkin

resolved Mar 14

Silicon Valley Bankruptcy (SVB)

Will a publicly traded US bank (not SVB) stock price close > 50% down on Monday, March 13th?

Resolved

YES

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Will measure the difference between the price at 8pm ET on Friday, March 10th and the price at 8pm ET on Monday, March 13th.

Mar 12, 1:58pm: ~~Will a publicly traded US bank (not SVB) close > 50% down on Monday, March 13th?~~ → Will a publicly traded US bank (not SVB) stock price close > 50% down on Monday, March 13th?

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1	S G	Ṁ440
2	Marcus Abramovitch	Ṁ154
3	Pat Myron	Ṁ117
4	Brian T. Edwards	Ṁ83
5	Ryan	Ṁ29

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Sir Cryptomindbought Ṁ10 of YES

So far for today 20 minutes before market close.

Sir Cryptomindpredicted YES at 59%

Obviously this does not include extended hours, yet.

S Gsold Ṁ50 of NO

Signature Bank was closed by the feds today (Sunday). Presumably the stock price will fall by a lot whenever trading resumes. (How will this market revolve if trading is halted tomorrow?)

Matthew Slotkin

@SG the measure is defined in the additional context. regardless of the mechanism through which it is achieved or prevented.

Brian T. Edwards

@SG signature is already down 40%

@MatthewSlotkin That doesn't really clarify how you measure the price at 8pm ET on Monday if trading was halted. Would you use the last price (i.e. from Friday?)

Also, the title says "close" and close happens at 4pm, not 8pm ET. Are you using the close price or extended hours trading price?

If I were writing this question, I would say that Signature can't count towards YES if their trading was halted and therefore they didn't have a closing price (or any price) on Monday.

Matthew Slotkin

@jack as specified in the additional context, the extended hours trading price will be used.

Jackbought Ṁ300 of YES

@MatthewSlotkin Ok, can you change the question title then? And I asked because the description is not clear because some places (e.g. yahoo finance) will display only the prices from market open hours.

Marcus Abramovitch bought Ṁ5,000 YES from 99.0% to 99.5%

Jack bought Ṁ3,000 YES from 98% to 99.0%

Pat Myron sold Ṁ979 YES from 98.3% to 98%

Marcus Abramovitch bought Ṁ3,000 YES from 90% to 98.3%

Marcus Abramovitch sold Ṁ6 NO at 90%

Jack bought Ṁ200 YES from 86% to 90%

Mohammed Ullah bought Ṁ10 YES at 86%

Mohammed Ullah bought Ṁ10 YES at 86%

Mohammed Ullah bought Ṁ10 YES at 86%

Justin Carter bought Ṁ100 YES from 83% to 86%

Jack bought Ṁ50 NO from 90% to 83%

Jack bought Ṁ20 NO from 92% to 90%

Jack bought Ṁ500 YES from 83% to 92%

Genzy bought Ṁ95 NO from 95% to 83%

Sir Cryptomind sold Ṁ53 YES at 95%

Pat Myron bought Ṁ100 YES from 94% to 95%

Pat Myron bought Ṁ1,000 YES from 75% to 94%

Sir Cryptomind bought Ṁ20 YES from 74% to 75%

Nicholas Yager bought Ṁ10 YES from 73% to 74%

Nicholas Yager bought Ṁ10 YES at 73%

Nicholas Yager bought Ṁ10 YES from 72% to 73%

Nicholas Yager bought Ṁ10 YES from 71% to 72%

Nicholas Yager bought Ṁ10 YES from 70% to 71%

Nicholas Yager bought Ṁ10 YES from 69% to 70%

Jim Hays bought Ṁ30 YES from 66% to 69%

Marcus Abramovitch sold Ṁ21 NO from 62% to 66%

Sir Cryptomind bought Ṁ8 YES from 61% to 62%

Sir Cryptomind bought Ṁ10 YES from 59% to 61%

Jack bought Ṁ50 NO from 70% to 59%

Jack bought Ṁ50 NO from 80% to 70%

Jack bought Ṁ80 NO from 92% to 80%

EgoSumV bought Ṁ200 YES from 90% to 92%

Jack bought Ṁ300 YES from 81% to 90%

Ryan Wismer bought Ṁ5 NO from 82% to 81%

drewd bought Ṁ10 YES at 82%

Will bought Ṁ20 YES from 81% to 82%

Ryan bought Ṁ100 YES from 73% to 81%

Wesley bought Ṁ25 YES from 70% to 73%

Marcus Abramovitch bought Ṁ30 NO from 79% to 70%

Alex Wilson bought Ṁ10 NO from 83% to 79%

Jannik bought Ṁ10 YES from 82% to 83%

Jannik bought Ṁ10 YES from 81% to 82%

Gustavo bought Ṁ6 YES at 81%

Jonathan Ray bought Ṁ10 NO from 85% to 81%

Gigacasting bought Ṁ100 YES from 67% to 85%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ7 NO at 67% (cancelled)

Brian T. Edwards bought Ṁ30 YES from 58% to 73%

Brian T. Edwards bought Ṁ15 YES from 48% to 58%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ21/Ṁ23 NO at 48% (cancelled)

Brian T. Edwards bought Ṁ20 YES from 54% to 66%

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