Will a publicly traded US bank (not SVB) stock price close > 50% down on Monday, March 13th?

#SVB Crisis #Silicon Valley Bankruptcy (SVB)

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resolved Mar 14

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YES

ALL

Will measure the difference between the price at 8pm ET on Friday, March 10th and the price at 8pm ET on Monday, March 13th.

Mar 12, 1:58pm: ~~Will a publicly traded US bank (not SVB) close > 50% down on Monday, March 13th?~~ → Will a publicly traded US bank (not SVB) stock price close > 50% down on Monday, March 13th?

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bought Ṁ10 of YES

So far for today 20 minutes before market close.

predicted YES

Obviously this does not include extended hours, yet.

sold Ṁ50 of NO

Signature Bank was closed by the feds today (Sunday). Presumably the stock price will fall by a lot whenever trading resumes. (How will this market revolve if trading is halted tomorrow?)

@SG the measure is defined in the additional context. regardless of the mechanism through which it is achieved or prevented.

@SG signature is already down 40%

@MatthewSlotkin That doesn't really clarify how you measure the price at 8pm ET on Monday if trading was halted. Would you use the last price (i.e. from Friday?)

Also, the title says "close" and close happens at 4pm, not 8pm ET. Are you using the close price or extended hours trading price?

If I were writing this question, I would say that Signature can't count towards YES if their trading was halted and therefore they didn't have a closing price (or any price) on Monday.

@jack as specified in the additional context, the extended hours trading price will be used.

bought Ṁ300 of YES

@MatthewSlotkin Ok, can you change the question title then? And I asked because the description is not clear because some places (e.g. yahoo finance) will display only the prices from market open hours.