Why will my solo consulting fail?
1
260Ṁ30
2030
13%
Economy: This was a ZIRP and I can't justify my fees in a tighter environment
11%
Health: I get a chronic illness
11%
Health: I get an acute injury
11%
Health: I get a workplace injury (RSI or similar)
13%
Skills: I fail to stay relevant
13%
Skills: The logistical overhead (including taxes, LLC stuff, etc) becomes overwhelming
13%
AI: Supply/demand shifts such that I can't justify my fees
13%
Legal: I get sued and net less than $10k after legal fees and/or penalty

I have a LLC through which I bill my own time, and wanted to expose any blind spots in my future plans.

  • I've been doing it for 4 years, with 2 gaps of about 0.2 years each between clients.

  • I actually work a salaried job three days per week, this is for the other two

  • I consult with the same skill set; Principal ML Engineer (https://www.linkedin.com/in/rittermatthew/) with a domain expertise in healthcare.

  • I've thus far taken only one client at time, it seems unlikely I'd do parallel.two

  • I've considered hiring an assistant, but have no interest in really scaling

  • I'm based in the Boston suburbs (comment if you want to meet up - always interested in like-minded neighbors!) but have worked from my home office.

  • Besides my first client, 100% of my leads have come from former co-workers at my first job.

  • I'm 36 and no relevant health issues. I should exercise more, but eat fairly well.

  • I've never come anywhere close to being sued

  • I'm just starting a medium-sized contract at a new client. They just raised $20M, and have indicated there's plenty I could help with if this goes well.

  • It's always competing against the option of going full-time at my salaried job, so my "reserve bid" for fees is moderately high.

Failure would be defined as <$10,000 net income for a trailing 12 month period, unless I'm intentionally developing a product.

This market has a high probabliity of resolving N/A (no failure), so as long as it's running I'll add liquidity by gifting Mana to people who make big bids and/or interesting comments/questions (I'd be flush, after all!)

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What about difficulty in finding future leads?

@osmarks Thanks! Let's put that under "Economy: ZIRP". I got so many leads during the first three years that I think having 12 months of zero (good) leads would necessarily have come from an underlying economic shift.

Thanks for asking a clarifying question, a Mana Link! https://manifold.markets/link/qrdtnznD (is there a better way to do this? I see people saying that they've gifted Mana and assumed it would be easy once I looked for the functionality)

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