Will Russia will be in a state of civil war before July 14th 2023
resolved Jul 19

Tensions have been escalating in Russia throughout 2023, marked by significant political and military events. In February, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Russia's suspension of participation in the New START treaty and hinted at the development of new nuclear weapons if the U.S. conducted any nuclear tests​. This was followed by the announcement in March that Russia would station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus by July​.

Several violent incidents also occurred, including a bombing in Saint Petersburg in April that resulted in the death of a military blogger and injury to numerous others​, and a car bomb attack in May that injured a pro-war nationalist and killed his driver​​. These events point to a heightened state of unrest.

In the same period, relations with other countries have deteriorated, as seen in the ban on Armenian dairy imports​, and there are hints that Russia might withdraw from the Black Sea grain deal​​. Domestically, human rights and independent organizations have come under scrutiny, such as the SOVA Center, which was ordered to close by the Moscow City Court in April​​.

On June 23, Russia accused Yevgeny Prigozhin of calling for a rebellion​. This series of events, both international and domestic, suggests a volatile situation that could potentially escalate into a civil war, as defined above.

Will Russia will be in a state of civil war before July 14th 2023

Question criteria:

The market will resolve as "Yes" if, on or before July 14, 2023, credible media outlets, international organizations, or government sources report that a civil war, as defined by a violent conflict between the state of Russia and one or more organized non-state actors within Russia's territory, has begun.

A conflict will be considered a civil war if it meets the following criteria:

  1. It involves the state of Russia and one or more organized non-state actors operating within Russia's borders.

  2. It is distinguished from interstate conflicts (where states fight other states), violent conflicts or riots not involving states (sometimes labeled intercommunal conflicts), and state repression against individuals who cannot be considered an organized or cohesive group, including genocides, and similar violence by non-state actors, such as terrorism or violent crime​.

  3. It involves sustained armed conflict, with both sides having the capacity for organized violence. Isolated or sporadic incidents of violence will not qualify as a civil war.

  4. The conflict has caused at least 100 casualties or territorial changes, or the Russian government and/or the international community officially declare a state of civil war.

The market will resolve as "No" if these conditions are not met on or before July 14, 2023.

In the case of conflicting reports or ambiguity about the state of affairs, the market may extend the resolution date to gather more information. The market may also take into account reports from neutral and reputable conflict monitoring organizations or institutions.

If the market is still unable to determine a clear resolution based on the available information by an extended resolution date, it may resolve as "N/A".

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MG4c6d avatar
M Gpredicted NO

ChristopherRandles avatar
Christopher Randlespredicted NO


I think it clearly should resolve no

AltPutin avatar

В таком состоянии будут США перед нашей Родиной. 🇺‍🇸

ShadowyZephyr avatar

Too bad I was offline when it was high. Expecting the Wagners to be successful for so long is crazy.

NGK avatar
NGKpredicted YES

@ShadowyZephyr They were successful though. They made it to the outskirts of Moscow without a single man lost. Prigozhin got his wishes it seems too. It’s only the start

ShadowyZephyr avatar

@NGK Lo and behold, Russia is still Russia. No civil war, Prigozhin was just forced to flee.

SemioticRivalry avatar
Semiotic Rivalrybought Ṁ240 of YES
Blomfilter avatar
Blomfilterpredicted YES

@SemioticRivalry Agree its a civil war in the general sense, but does it check off all 4 resolution criteria here? Thats the pain of Manifold Markets, each Question has its own definition of things haha

WilliamHoward avatar
Will Howard

I think the short resolution date here makes this market deviate from the common sense definition of "civil war". Like if there is a 3 week rebellion by Wagner which is then put down that would count according to these criteria, but I don't think people would call that the second Russian civil war

ElliotDavies avatar
Elliot Daviesbought Ṁ25 of YES

@WilliamHoward if not a civil war, what would you call that? I feel like a conflict involving 10,000s of soldiers in the capital city is certainly a civil war, regardless of how long it lasts