Tensions have been escalating in Russia throughout 2023, marked by significant political and military events. In February, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Russia's suspension of participation in the New START treaty and hinted at the development of new nuclear weapons if the U.S. conducted any nuclear tests​. This was followed by the announcement in March that Russia would station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus by July​.

Several violent incidents also occurred, including a bombing in Saint Petersburg in April that resulted in the death of a military blogger and injury to numerous others​, and a car bomb attack in May that injured a pro-war nationalist and killed his driver​​. These events point to a heightened state of unrest.

In the same period, relations with other countries have deteriorated, as seen in the ban on Armenian dairy imports​, and there are hints that Russia might withdraw from the Black Sea grain deal​​. Domestically, human rights and independent organizations have come under scrutiny, such as the SOVA Center, which was ordered to close by the Moscow City Court in April​​.

On June 23, Russia accused Yevgeny Prigozhin of calling for a rebellion​. This series of events, both international and domestic, suggests a volatile situation that could potentially escalate into a civil war, as defined above.

Will Russia will be in a state of civil war before July 14th 2023

Question criteria:

The market will resolve as "Yes" if, on or before July 14, 2023, credible media outlets, international organizations, or government sources report that a civil war, as defined by a violent conflict between the state of Russia and one or more organized non-state actors within Russia's territory, has begun.

A conflict will be considered a civil war if it meets the following criteria:

1. It involves the state of Russia and one or more organized non-state actors operating within Russia's borders.

2. It is distinguished from interstate conflicts (where states fight other states), violent conflicts or riots not involving states (sometimes labeled intercommunal conflicts), and state repression against individuals who cannot be considered an organized or cohesive group, including genocides, and similar violence by non-state actors, such as terrorism or violent crime​.

3. It involves sustained armed conflict, with both sides having the capacity for organized violence. Isolated or sporadic incidents of violence will not qualify as a civil war.

4. The conflict has caused at least 100 casualties or territorial changes, or the Russian government and/or the international community officially declare a state of civil war.

The market will resolve as "No" if these conditions are not met on or before July 14, 2023.

In the case of conflicting reports or ambiguity about the state of affairs, the market may extend the resolution date to gather more information. The market may also take into account reports from neutral and reputable conflict monitoring organizations or institutions.

If the market is still unable to determine a clear resolution based on the available information by an extended resolution date, it may resolve as "N/A".