Will Manifold crack down on markets designed to harvest mana by the end of 2023?
Dec 31

Market resolves YES if Manifold implements new technical or administrative policies to close markets or sanction creators or markets whose primary purpose is to generate mana/activity for the creator and/or traders with a preordained or guaranteed outcome. Resolves NO if no such changes occur by 1/1/2024.

Examples of harvesting mana:

  • Self-satisfying markets: "Will this market get X bets" (These technically are already against the community guidelines.)

  • Near-impossible, near-certain and/or clickbait markets: "Will Apple go bankrupt by Friday"

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brp avatar
brpbought Ṁ10 of NO

Note that there is a legitimate interest in near-certain markets: research on the time value of M$, and for Manifold the business, other markets which increase engagement also bring in users.

MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitch

@brp there is legitimate interest to figure out interest rates since that helps to figure out inaccuracies in other markets. I don't think there is an interest in things such as

"Will Apple go bankrupt today?" Or "will the sun rise tomorrow"

JohnSmithb9be avatar
John Smithis predicting YES at 36%

@MarcusAbramovitch Came here to post that comment. Maybe also pointing out that whacko harvest markets make MM look like crackpots or morons.