Will Manifold crack down on markets designed to harvest mana by the end of 2023?
21
163
410
resolved Dec 9
Resolved
YES

Market resolves YES if Manifold implements new technical or administrative policies to close markets or sanction creators or markets whose primary purpose is to generate mana/activity for the creator and/or traders with a preordained or guaranteed outcome. Resolves NO if no such changes occur by 1/1/2024.

Examples of harvesting mana:

  • Self-satisfying markets: "Will this market get X bets" (These technically are already against the community guidelines.)

  • Near-impossible, near-certain and/or clickbait markets: "Will Apple go bankrupt by Friday"

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ590
2Ṁ219
3Ṁ191
4Ṁ122
5Ṁ57
Sort by:

No position here myself, this was posted in the please resolve channel. Going by the title, I think we've definitely cracked down on these markets. I unrank/unsub/unlist them constantly. We don't get 100% of them, but it's an administrative policy which penalizes these markets and their creators IMO.

@Shump Is your logic that it only counts if the policy is to N/A such markets? I don't think that was the creator's intent.

sold Ṁ77 of NO

@Joshua I'll see myself out. I made a stupud buy based on the fact that nothing new happened for months, but I guess you're right

@Shump Happens to me all the time haha. Going to resolve this yes now.

How do these actions penalize the market creators?

The criteria call for policy which penalizes the creators or the markets themselves. The markets themselves are inarguably penalized by being unlisted and unsubsidized, it means they won't be visible to users on the Home/Browse pages and that manifold won't provide them liquidity. The market creator is penalized because they don't get unique trader bonuses for the markets, so they have to pay the 50 mana to create the market and get nothing back.

@Joshua Are these policies new since March, or is it just increased enforcement of pre-existing policies?

@JimHays This is is new, the policy was introduced after this market was created and then has been iterated on a lot since then. For a while there were policies in place but they were only enforced by David and it was too much for any one person. But now every mod is able to unlist/unsub these markets and we've definitely done a crack down.

predicted YES

@JimHays It has changed considerably, before it was sectioned into "non-predictive" and "predictive", which was a shotgun approach. In April Manifold first started autotagging stuff as "non-predictive" but it was only to delist markets and totally hide them

Now markets can be unranked, unsubsidised, and the punishments have changed. iirc before you could still get subsidies and trader bonuses, now you can't (depending on the rule you're breaking)

Back in March it was very easy to find mana farming like the examples given here. I'd challenge you to find some now where the maker/market aren't being sanctioned in some way

predicted YES

[Not commenting as staff, plz argue if you want]

I see people buying NO, but the description criteria have been met imo

Manifold unlists, unranks, and unsubsidises markets now, meaning they are not discoverable in feed, they don't give trader bonuses, and there is no added liquidity to "harvest mana"

bought Ṁ50 of NO

@Gen The description is very clear. "Closing markets or sanction creators". None of that is happening.

Also, the current implementation is very partial. I've made self-resolving markets that never got "unranked", and I could open the market "Will Apple go bankrupt by Friday" right now and nothing would happen.

predicted YES

@Shump

sanction creators or markets

Creators are sanctioned by not getting bonuses (kinda? Or you can consider this a market sanction), markets are sanctioned by not getting listed in the feed, and not getting subsidies

The other example market is one that would be sanctioned.

The apple example is weird, but if you made a lot of those you would be sanctioned. If you can show me examples of people mana harvesting, that would help, but I can't find any.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Note that there is a legitimate interest in near-certain markets: research on the time value of M$, and for Manifold the business, other markets which increase engagement also bring in users.

@brp there is legitimate interest to figure out interest rates since that helps to figure out inaccuracies in other markets. I don't think there is an interest in things such as

"Will Apple go bankrupt today?" Or "will the sun rise tomorrow"

predicted YES

@MarcusAbramovitch Came here to post that comment. Maybe also pointing out that whacko harvest markets make MM look like crackpots or morons.