A new paper in PLOS One claims to have found a biological mechanism by which a genetic variation causes certain people to be less able to detoxify BPA (and maybe other chemicals), and that the resulting buildup of these chemicals lead to the cluster of correlated neurological differences we know as autism. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0289841
Will this paper stand up to scrutiny for one year, in my judgement? Market resolves YES, in one year, other papers cite this one favorably and there are no convincing debunkings. Resolves NO if the theory is debunked. Resolves N/A if there's basically no further discussion of this alleged finding.
I will not bet in this market.
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@MrLuke255 yes, their theory is that some genetic mutation in people who ultimately develop ASD causes them to be worse at clearing BPA, and that the BPA toxicity is what actually leads to the symptoms we know as ASD. So it's mutation -> greater sensitivity to BPA -> autism.
@MrLuke255 i mean, i think it would be a very unusual use of the word "autism" to mean "genetic deficit in detoxifying BPA" rather than "cluster of correlated neurological differences". I think I want to leave the title alone, but I will edit the description to be more clear.