Does BPA cause Autism?
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resolved Oct 19
Resolved
N/A

A new paper in PLOS One claims to have found a biological mechanism by which a genetic variation causes certain people to be less able to detoxify BPA (and maybe other chemicals), and that the resulting buildup of these chemicals lead to the cluster of correlated neurological differences we know as autism. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0289841

Bisphenol-A and phthalate metabolism in children with neurodevelopmental disorders
Background The etiology of autism spectrum (ASD) and Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity (ADHD) disorders are multifactorial. Epidemiological studies have shown associations with environmental pollutants, such as plasticizers. This study focused on two of these compounds, the Bisphenol-A (BPA) and Diethylhexyl Phthalate (DEHP). The major pathway for BPA and DEHP excretion is via glucuronidation. Glucuronidation makes insoluble substances more water-soluble allowing for their subsequent elimination in urine. Hypothesis Detoxification of these two plasticizers is compromised in children with ASD and ADHD. Consequently, their tissues are more exposed to these two plasticizers. Methods We measured the efficiency of glucuronidation in three groups of children, ASD (n = 66), ADHD (n = 46) and healthy controls (CTR, n = 37). The children were recruited from the clinics of Rutgers-NJ Medical School. A urine specimen was collected from each child. Multiple mass spectrometric analyses including the complete metabolome were determined and used to derive values for the efficiency of glucuronidation for 12 varied glucuronidation pathways including those for BPA and MEHP. Results (1) Both fold differences and metabolome analyses showed that the three groups of children were metabolically different from each other. (2) Of the 12 pathways examined, only the BPA and DEHP pathways discriminated between the three groups. (3) Glucuronidation efficiencies for BPA were reduced by 11% for ASD (p = 0.020) and 17% for ADHD (p<0.001) compared to controls. DEHP showed similar, but not significant trends. Conclusion ASD and ADHD are clinically and metabolically different but share a reduction in the efficiency of detoxification for both BPA and DEHP with the reductions for BPA being statistically significant.

Will this paper stand up to scrutiny for one year, in my judgement? Market resolves YES, in one year, other papers cite this one favorably and there are no convincing debunkings. Resolves NO if the theory is debunked. Resolves N/A if there's basically no further discussion of this alleged finding.

I will not bet in this market.

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@traders there are 4 papers citing this one. None are critical but none really actively confirm the findings either. By the literal criteria I stated I guess this would be a YES but I'm worried that those criteria are not good and, in worlds where BPA does not in fact cause autism, we could easily see the same set of citations.

Taking arguments for ~48h before resolving. Leaning YES.

@MattLashofSullivan @traders Update: after thinking more, I am now leaning towards N/A. I think the small number of citations we have seen are basically equally likely in worlds where BPA does cause autism in the way the authors claim, vs doesn't.

The main problem is that PLOS One doesn't have a big enough impact factor to get a lot of people interested in doing a replication.

@MattLashofSullivan @mods I can't resolve this N/A myself, "negative payouts too large."

I checked with my wife who is more scientifically on it than me, and she agrees this pattern of citation isn't much evidence for or against the results being true.

Can a mod please resolve N/A?

@MattLashofSullivan I resolved it N/A based on your request.

Solid question. I’m following this!

What do you mean by "lead to autism"? Their hypothesis is the other way around, that having ASD causes compromised detoxification.

So IMO market title contradicts its description.

@MrLuke255 yes, their theory is that some genetic mutation in people who ultimately develop ASD causes them to be worse at clearing BPA, and that the BPA toxicity is what actually leads to the symptoms we know as ASD. So it's mutation -> greater sensitivity to BPA -> autism.

@MattLashofSullivan Maybe add "symptoms" to the title?

@MrLuke255 i mean, i think it would be a very unusual use of the word "autism" to mean "genetic deficit in detoxifying BPA" rather than "cluster of correlated neurological differences". I think I want to leave the title alone, but I will edit the description to be more clear.

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