꧁∙·▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫꧁ MarkMyWords Series ꧂▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫·∙꧂

Note: I am open to different methods to resolve this market. The method for resolution may not be resolved for another week or two of discussion. Do not vote and be upset if the resolution method changes. The resolution method will be in the general spirit of the post title. Please discuss resolution methods in the comments below, or say if you like the current one.

https://www.reddit.com/r/MarkMyWords/comments/1dkm9n5/mmw_the_djt_price_drop_is_a_sign_that_the_wealthy/

Resolution Criteria:

1. The market will resolve as "Yes" if:

   • The price of DJT stock shows a clear trend (either up or down) in the 30 days leading up to Election Day (November 5, 2024) AND

   • This trend correctly corresponds to the election outcome as follows:
     a) If DJT stock price trends upward: Trump wins the election
     b) If DJT stock price trends downward: Trump loses the election

2. The market will resolve as "No" if:

   • The DJT stock price trend does not correspond to the election outcome OR

   • There is no clear trend in the DJT stock price in the 30 days leading up to the election

3. For the purpose of this market:

   • A "clear trend" is defined as a consistent movement of at least 10% in either direction over the 30-day period

   • The closing price on October 6, 2024, will be used as the baseline for calculating the trend

   • The closing price on November 4, 2024 (day before the election) will be used as the final price for trend calculation

4. Resolution will be based on:

   • Official stock price data from NASDAQ for DJT

   • Official election results as certified by the Electoral College

5. The market will resolve as "Invalid" if:

   • DJT stock is delisted or trading is suspended during the 30-day period before the election

   • The 2024 U.S. Presidential election is significantly delayed or disputed beyond December 31, 2024

Closing Date:
This market will close for trading on November 5, 2024 (Election Day), and will be resolved once the election outcome is officially determined.Additional Notes:

• This market does not imply causation, only correlation between stock price movement and election outcome

• The resolution is based solely on the directional trend of the stock price, not on the magnitude of price changes beyond the 10% threshold