꧁∙·▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫꧁ MarkMyWords Series ꧂▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫·∙꧂
Note: I am open to different methods to resolve this market. The method for resolution may not be resolved for another week or two of discussion. Do not vote and be upset if the resolution method changes. The resolution method will be in the general spirit of the post title. Please discuss resolution methods in the comments below, or say if you like the current one.
Resolution Criteria:
The market will resolve as "Yes" if:
The price of DJT stock shows a clear trend (either up or down) in the 30 days leading up to Election Day (November 5, 2024) AND
This trend correctly corresponds to the election outcome as follows:
a) If DJT stock price trends upward: Trump wins the election
b) If DJT stock price trends downward: Trump loses the election
The market will resolve as "No" if:
The DJT stock price trend does not correspond to the election outcome OR
There is no clear trend in the DJT stock price in the 30 days leading up to the election
For the purpose of this market:
A "clear trend" is defined as a consistent movement of at least 10% in either direction over the 30-day period
The closing price on October 6, 2024, will be used as the baseline for calculating the trend
The closing price on November 4, 2024 (day before the election) will be used as the final price for trend calculation
Resolution will be based on:
Official stock price data from NASDAQ for DJT
Official election results as certified by the Electoral College
The market will resolve as "Invalid" if:
DJT stock is delisted or trading is suspended during the 30-day period before the election
The 2024 U.S. Presidential election is significantly delayed or disputed beyond December 31, 2024
Closing Date:
This market will close for trading on November 5, 2024 (Election Day), and will be resolved once the election outcome is officially determined.Additional Notes:
This market does not imply causation, only correlation between stock price movement and election outcome
The resolution is based solely on the directional trend of the stock price, not on the magnitude of price changes beyond the 10% threshold
1,000
3.00DJT is up today quite a bit, given that it is up so much in the past month.
None the less I feel kind of icky resolving this either Yes or No. But since there are no holders of "No" I will resolve it as "Yes" if Trump wins, and "No" if he loses.
I'm also ok just resolving this N/A now before the results come in. If the two holders @Bayesian and @Agh like this comment, I will resolve it N/A immediately, otherwise i'll go ahead and resolve this as Yes if Trump wins.
@Bayesian if he wins and it stays up 100% for the month, I'd be inclined to either resolve Yes or N/A, since the original criteria included only needing it to be up 10%. A little late bubble reaction doesn't seem to be relevant to the fact that the stock rose and maintained a massive increase.
If he loses I'll be resolving No
@MattF @Bayesian it's a bit of a sidetrack but the DJT price movement is basic pump and dump mechanics, I said it a while back on the DJT daily market when they started pumping it during pre-market session to (likely) fund the campaign, now we are near the end of it and a lot of dumb money went it following the pump so it's time to dump and take profit (my 2cts :))
Tangent to your sidetrack but I was reminded what the initial impetus of this market was, which was a response to the reddit thread that the (at the time) falling price of DJT was indicative of big money knowing Trump would lose.
That theory didn't seem to work out, but this market was meant to test a slightly less restrictive theory, which is that the market in general is able to track accurately confidence in Trump's ability to get elected by the price of DJT.
I think if it stays more than 50% up from Oct 2 to the night of the election (and he wins) we can say this is evidence of that theory being correct.
@MattF I mean, for sure you could use that criteria to resolve the market as YES, but saying it's evidence for the theory is a bit of a stretch imo, given funding the campaign is a more likely explanation for the price movement and wouldn't matter if he wins or loses (maybe it would support more the theory if after he wins the uptrends continue over time)
@Choms can you think of a better criteria to validate the general implied world model(s) of the original reddit poster?
@MattF it's hard to say, I would not over complicate the market and just keep the criteria you proposed, in general there is not one thing that influence stock markets (any stock market) so trying to find a causality is a bit foolish in that sense
@Choms Yes I know, but I was trying to operationalize the redditor's claim. And there is some validity to the idea that financial elites do have both disparate impact on the stock market prices, and that they might have some superior knowledge of likely election outcomes compared to the public.
@MattF even if that was the case, why would that imply anyone "smart" would "bet" on a "random" company which performance doesn't depends on the election outcome? it's more likely this Freddy guy doing the pump&dump himself to pay off the money he's throwing on polymarket (given he clearly has a ton of money and financial background he would also have access to the pre-market which is also more comfortable for the EU timezone)
@MattF not to mess with the resolution criteria (I agree with your most recent comment) but just to follow up on this discussion, DJT is down 20% to 28$ (so far) today, which honestly kinda supports my point about the pump and dump haha
Any other methods for resolution that anyone else prefers? Right now the resolution criteria will be if the DJT stock price is above/below what it will be on October 5, 2024. I'm sure there are many other things we should consider besides that, but i'm not sure what a comprehensive list would entail.