I just hit my 50 day-versary of creating my Manifold account, and I've been active on the site daily (maintaining my betting streak, but also commenting on markets and in the Discord, and occasionally creating markets.)
Will the same hold true 50 days from now? Will I have a 100 day streak?
To keep things objective, I will resolve the market based on streak continuation and my personal comments tab. If both have gone up by (at least) one, daily, for the next 50 days, this market resolves YES. Otherwise, NO.
50 days from today is March 23. To keep things spicy, I am going to close this market one week ahead. I will inform on how the streak is going at that time. To show a commitment to getting a YES on this, I will put a limit order to buy YES up to 51%. I want to simultaneously curb doubts that I'll shank this market, and not take profit opportunity away from participants.
As promised, here is my close-date update.
I’m short. I missed one day on my streak, somewhere about a weekish ago.
But, more to the point, my activity level has definitely been down. Work’s gotten super busy, and there’s been some life stuff too, and Manifold, as fun as it is, has not been getting nearly as much of my brainspace as it once did.
To anyone who’s unsure about my literalness in the resolution criteria: well, present-me agrees with you that past-me was too vague. I have to take it literally that yeah, I really did expect a streak of 94 today and at least one comment every day for the past 44. So by any measure, this market is a certain no.
I was hoping instead for a sustained-enough streak this far that it would still be a guess towards the end, but ah well.
In any event - no, I’m not intending to quit the platform. I probably will continue to be as less-active as I’ve been for the forseeable future, but it’s not going to hit zero. (Well, actually, wanna bet on that?)
@MattCWilson if you get covid you're fucked
@MarkIngraham … and if you get fucked, you’re covid?
Am I reading this wrong? It looks like there were several recent days where you didn't comment, thus guaranteeing a "no" outcome.
@LucaMasters Honestly no idea how this is supposed to be resolved after careful reading... The literal interpretation seems to agree with you but nothing else here makes sense if we assume that.
I'm surprised at the comments assuming that missing logging in for one day means you've left Manifold.
@Duncan Are there comments assuming that?
@MattCWilson To be more precise, there are comments treating you leaving Manifold permanently as the greater risk. Which is true if you're looking at what would be the worse outcome for Manifold, but is nonsense if you're looking at the resolution to this market.
@Duncn Ah, got it.
I got banned for manifold for jews did wtc comments.
@MarkIngraham welp - maybe don’t do that?
@MattCWilson It’s some kind of low effort shitposter.
@JohnSmithb9be yet i make 20% a day.
@MarkIngraham “He graffitis buildings for fun”
“But I have a good job!”
“He’s the guy that pisses on random front doors”
“Yet I’m successful in (insert unrelated aspect of life here).”
That might be true and I don’t really care one way or another but it’s irrelevant to the claim I make - you make weird “Jews did wtc” comments, and I consider that to be low-effort shitpostinng.
@JohnSmithb9be but it's true. Wtc was 1000 Celsius and holocaust ovens were more. Wtc refutes holocaust.
@MarkIngraham I’m sorry to hear that.
If you leave, you’ll make an internet stranger sad. Please don’t go. The drones need you.
It would be sad to lose you, your markets are on interesting topics with thoroughly detailed resolution criteria! I’m impressed with your market creation-fu
@ian Have any requests in particular that would make you raise the probability at which you placed your limit order?
@ian Meaning, is there anything that Manifold could do that would encourage me to stay? 😄 I’m pretty committed I’d say; cloning markets or being able to create markets in a group with shared properties (close date, tags) would be nice. A user conference would be hella fun 😁
I’m only putting the limit order at 51% to leave a lot of profit opportunity for others. Something about making markets to profit off my own behavior feels… eh, slightly uncouth? Not my bag.
My own actual expected probability is higher than 51% but not 100%. So far my streak is sustained, but it’s been busy at work this past week and a couple times I’ve not really been on the site much and had momentary panic I missed placing a prediction.
@MattCWilson Oh! Have you seen you can duplicate markets from … menu?
@ian I had not! Nice 😄