(Edit: 2023-01-16) Don't just predict this one, please check out the other 12 travel predictions! Thanks! https://manifold.markets/group/scotts-cheap-flights-going-2023-pre
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In 2019, US airlines averaged more than 26,000 flights per day, compared to just 22,300 in 2022. That 14% gap will shrink significantly, but we won’t reach 2019 levels this year.
(80% confidence)
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This is question #6 from Scott Keyes' annual travel predictions at Scott's Cheap Flights (now Going).
Since Scott resolved and graded his 2022 predictions before the end of 2022, I am setting the close date ahead of the end of the year, to (try to) avoid a situation where he posts the resolutions before the market closes. In the event that his resolution post falls in 2024, my apologies in advance. If he hasn't posted resolutions at all by February 1, 2024, I will do my best to resolve them personally, and set N/A for any questions that I can't determine with outside (non-Going) source data.
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The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) published a comprehensive aviation outlook in May 2023, indicating several intricate challenges that may hinder the full recovery of U.S. domestic flights to 2019 levels by the end of 2023.
Although the demand for air travel has topped pre-pandemic 2019 levels in 2023, as reported by Bloomberg, this progress has been unsteady and uneven across the different market segments. In fact, the FAA highlighted that the airline industry is witnessing an altered balance between leisure and business travel, with the latter growing slowly and remaining well below 2019 levels, and the former being extremely dependent on factors such as seasonality, economic growth, and inflation (In fact, while domestic US travel has exceeded 2019 levels, international flight demand remained well below pre-pandemic).
The aforementioned factors, alongside the repayment of accumulated debt, hiring and training bottlenecks, and supply chain disruptions (FAA, 2023), as a result of the pandemic downturn, significantly hinder the flight capacity supply for most carriers.