Will The FTX Future Fund's AI Worldview Prize Funding Be Replaced?
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resolved Jun 21
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N/A

As asked by: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/arA65LFet5K9KDeMF/will-the-ai-worldview-prize-funding-be-replaced

If there are no news and nobody has stepped in to cover the prize by 2024, I will consider the question to have resolved negatively. Happy to move the date closer to today.

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bought Ṁ139 of YES

New prize:
We will award a total of six prizes across three tiers:

  • First prize (two awards): $50,000

  • Second prize (two awards): $37,500

Third prize (two awards): $25,000

Equals guaranteed prizes = $225k.

Old prize:
At a minimum, we will award $50k to the three published analyses that most inform the Future Fund's overall perspective on these issues, and $15k for the next 3-10 most promising contributions to the prize competition. (I.e., we will award a minimum of 6 prizes. If some of the larger prizes are claimed, we may accordingly award fewer of these prizes.)

Equals guaranteed prizes = $195k.

It is a different structure, and significantly less total funding available, but the guaranteed prizes to be dealt out are actually higher.

"This is the same contest we preannounced late last year, which is itself the spiritual successor to the now-defunct Future Fund competition. Part of our hope is that our (much smaller) prizes might encourage people who already started work for the Future Fund competition to share it publicly."

I think the spirit is to replace the funding to compensate people who suffered from FTX never being able to do the competition as planned. I think there's quite a strong case for YES, even if not all the potential funding is replaced – since it took huge updates to the thinking on timelines for people who already spend a lot of their time thinking about it.

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3kaojgsu6qy2n8TdC/pre-announcing-the-2023-open-philanthropy-ai-worldviews

Should open phil's new prize be considered a replacement? Based on the description I've
included in the picture, it could be argued that this is a separate contest. Also the question asks: "Will the worldview prize funding be replaced" not "Will the worldview prize be replaced".

I'm currently leaning towards this not counting, but I also feel that violates some sort of common sense principle about the spirit of the question. What do others think?

predicted YES

@MathiasBonde I could see a case for N/A if this happens as stated. Unclear if it's the same contest, unclear if the lesser dollar amount counts as 'replacing' the funding.

how does this resolve if it is partially covered, retroactively?

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