This is essentially a weaker version of the "Will I make IMO 2024?" market, as most people who make the USA IMO team usually qualify for RMM at some point beforehand.

The RMM team is selected from the USA TST group (so I am technically eligible) via a combination of TSTST and TST scores. 6 people are sent every year. (Technically, some of those people are not official competitors, but this will still resolve to YES if I get invited to compete unofficially.)

3 current TST group members, namely, Alex Zhao, Alex Wang, and Alan Bu are ineligible for the RMM team, meaning that my odds of making RMM are higher than my odds of making IMO.

This will be resolved when the 2023 USA RMM team is announced.