Snow on Christmas morning in Manchester, NH?
8
100Ṁ235Dec 25
32%
chance
12
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if new snow falls from the sky on 2025.12.25 06:00 to 11:59 EST in Manchester, NH
Cloud seeding included.
Snow fall does not include but is not limited to not including rain, frozen rain, hail, or dumping snow out of a plane or from a rooftop/window.
Does not include snow that had fallen on days prior that is still around.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
I downloaded data from https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/daily-snow/NH f
or the Decembers of both 2023 and 2024. In 2023 there were 5 snowy days and in 2024 there were 7. Since each month has 31 days this suggests a likelihood of (5 + 7)/(2*31) ~ 19% or so. However, it is more common for snow to fall in late December than early, hence why I'm not buying it all the way down
