Will the United Methodist Church Book of Discipline allow pastors to be “self-avowed, practicing homosexuals" in 2024?
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Current position: https://www.umc.org/en/content/ask-the-umc-what-is-the-churchs-position-on-homosexuality Closes at the start of the 2024 General Conference, resolves once the result is clear.

Resolves based on votes to change the Book of Discipline. I won't resolve based on the BoD position losing majority support or there being widespread non-enforcement.

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Given the number of theologically conservative churches leaving the denomination in advance of GC 2024 and the close margin by which the current language was affirmed at the last GC, I think it is more likely than not that the relevant language will be removed from the BoD fairly quickly. The only question in my mind is whether they have time in 2024 to change tha language or whether the schism stuff takes up all the legislative bandwidth that year.