Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
In "for no laid course prepare" is it realistic for Merrin to forget that she is cosplaying a Sparashki?
5
Ṁ100Ṁ155
resolved Sep 30
Resolved
YES

https://glowfic.com/replies/1857344#reply-1857344

Sep 22, 9:07am: resolves based on my judgment, as heavily influenced by market probability and provided comments. I am not Merrin and haven't been in similar scenarios, so my prior is weak and around 50%.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ46
2Ṁ4
3Ṁ4
4Ṁ3
5Ṁ1
Sort by:

I'm not personally convinced but I am convinced that everyone else is convinced, so I will update accordingly.

If the market closes with the current bets + comments I will resolve this to YES.

If I'm cross referencing right from various Dath Ilan fiction, Merrin's IQ would be about 120 in Earth terms?

predictedYES

@MartinRandall Off the top of my head, their average IQ is 143 with standard deviation 12. Merrin is -1SD, putting her around 131

More people cosplay at work in Dath Ilan, so it could be less salient to her, but then she is still very embarrassed by it, but then she does get embarrassed easily.

As far as I can tell, Merrin realizes that she's in a swimsuit when her cellular texter beeps and then this is the next time she realizes.

predictedYES

@MartinRandall It's possible Merrin didn't forget she was cosplaying until she starts splitting her attention in https://glowfic.com/replies/1857286#reply-1857286. Several tags in between emphasise how strained her attention is and how long it takes her to realise things that seem obvious in hindsight.

Seems realistic to me.

Merrin has relatively limited working memory for a dath ilani, and has to split her attention between five different machines (plus the prediction markets etc.) in a way that requires a second-rank Keeper trained in memory-splitting to possibly replace her, amid much higher stakes than anything she's ever worked on before. She just wouldn't have any room for thinking about anything else until she gives her appearance conscious thought, and it seems pretty realistic that she wouldn't think about that for a couple of hours (the next tag to give a timestamp says they're coming up on 2.5 hours).

Also, as someone whose intelligence is limited by working memory... mood. I would totally forget.

Potential counterpoints:

  • Her swimsuit probably feels different to her normal clothes, and you'd think she might notice that her usual movements feel a little different.

  • Wouldn't she get a little cold? Possibly not; she's moving back and forth a lot. And I vaguely recall a tag indicating that she doesn't feel that cold.

@NcyRocks She's also not wearing any shoes, so I'd expect the floor to feel different under her feet. If she's standing to operate all the machines then she will also notice her feet becoming tired more quickly than usual, albeit she has very high stamina.

Also, any situation that brings her hands or body into line of sight, like a touchscreen, would show her unconscious brain that her body is still green.

I would definitely buy this scene if she had just forgotten her forehead wrinkles and eye color.

Absolutely. She has been doing this for a very large number of hours (I've lost count). Even if something is important, even if you are trying to keep something on your mind, it will certainly slip in and out of attention over the course of that many hours. And Merrin's cosplay is not important, and (at least at times) she specifically did not want to keep it on her mind because it's embarrassing, and there were tons of other unusual, important, and interesting things to be focused on. So the experience of temporarily forgetting this thing and then it coming to mind again is utterly predictable.

Yes, she was hyperfocusing on something extremely mentally taxing and important, so it would crowd out anything else.

predictedYES

Also, how are you resolving this?