Will Twitter limit user's ability to block or mute Elon Musk?
resolved Mar 16

Resolves YES if a credible source will report that at least some users some of the time had their blocks/mute overriden to show at least one of Elon's tweets.

Resolves NO 3 months after Elon stops having direct executive power over engineers at Twitter. Most likely this will be once Elon stops being the CEO, but resolution may not happen if he keeps some other executive function with a potential direct involvement in day-to-day engineering decisions after that.

If neither of those happen before Feb 15th 2024, market will also resolve to NO. (EDIT shortly after creation - limit the market to one year)

Since resolution is partly subjective, I will not trade on this market.

Close date updated to 2025-02-15 12:59 am

Close date updated to 2024-02-15 12:59 am

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Haven't heard about any instances of this, resolves NO unless somebody posts some indication to the contrary... (will wait ~2 days for this)

@MartinModrak I saw it happen a few times and had to re-mute him repeatedly, but never found any news coverage of it :(

@Sparr OK, I'll give myself (and everybody else) a bit more time to dig any evidence for/against before resolving

@MartinModrak I found no evidence of mute/blocks failing... Resolving NO

Block is not the same as Mute. Mute is great. Block (as implemented on Twitter) is a broken paradigm that needs to be eliminated [almost?] everywhere.

Also should note that the CEO change should not IMHO trigger early resolution so far, as he seems to keep direct involvement. e.g. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/05/tech/linda-yaccarino-twitter-ceo-elon-musk/index.html has
"Even without the CEO title, Musk will retain significant control over Twitter as its owner. He has said he will oversee product, technology and software and systems operations, and will also transition to being the company’s executive chairman."

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1666594707621773312 (Elon: Blocking public posts makes no sense. It needs to be deprecated in favor of a stronger form of mute.)

@MartinModrak To clarify, since the market description explicitly mentions "show at least one of Elon's tweets", this specific proposal is unlikely to trigger resolution by itself. But it IMHO indicates that it is likely that mute/block behaviour will change, so some "override" feature is more likely to come along.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Elon Musk tweets with no filter or care,
Users block him out, but will Twitter dare?
To limit our power to silence his voice,
Or will they let us make our own choice?

For what it's worth, the question title sounds like a policy specific to Elon Musk, but I think the most likely cause of resolution for "at least some users some of the time had their blocks/mute overriden to show at least one of Elon's tweets" would be a policy (e.g., mutes don't block trending content) or practice (e.g., spaghetti code) that leads to blocks/mutes being overridden in general, not specific to Elon.

@JacyAnthis Agree that this type of resolution would count. My bet is on some expansion of the "power user" mod (though that still technically wouldn't be completely specific to Elon, that's why the formulation is quite general)

@MartinModrak FYI this is already happening as expected, though from a skim, nobody has reported it yet for Elon Musk in particular: https://twitter.com/search?q=twitter%20blocked%20elonmusk

predicted NO

@JacyAnthis All the examples I see are Bob saying, "Alice blocked me. Why am I seeing Alice's tweets" That's a misunderstanding on Bob's part. To stop Alice's tweets, Bob has to block her himself. Twitter blocks are one-way. Are you aware of an example where Bob blocked Alice and yet Alice's tweets still appear in Bob's feed?