Will I exercise 45 minutes a day in August?
30
30
1K
resolved Aug 30
Resolved
YES

This market resolves yes if I average 45 minutes of exercise per day in August.

Shamelessly copying Alice's exercise market series: https://manifold.markets/Alice/will-i-exercise-45-minutes-a-day-in

Context: I recently moved to NY and got a climbing gym membership and citibike subscription. I plan to bike and climb at least 2 times a week for ~2 hours each session as well as random biking for transportation purposes. However, I will be in California visiting friends for the first week and don't know how much exercise will be happening then.

Jul 31, 8:23pm: whoops, said first month instead of first week of August.

Jul 31, 8:54pm: tracking exercise here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1c1nekKaQlxz_eO3Ubvgd2w24fcXoZXEUutMK5iRcRXA

Close date updated to 2022-09-01 11:59 pm

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bought Ṁ100 of NO

You'll need to exercise 115 minutes today/tomorrow to make it- consider this the final push!

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Got back from California yesterday night! I exercised more than I expected there so I should be pretty on track!

bought Ṁ40 of NO
I hope that you will succeed and get my points! Good luck!
predicted NO
Same!
Good luck, Alex! Rooting for you!
predicted YES
@Alice thanks! I’ll need it
bought Ṁ100 of NO
100 on No on behalf on Joanne, prove her wrong >:D
bought Ṁ100 of NO
@Derek yeah me too
bought Ṁ10 of NO
Do you have a maximum threshold for how much activity you consider healthy over a week or a one/two day period? Trying to avoid inadvertently incentivizing you to run seven marathons the last week of the month (:
predicted YES
@Charlie I’ve never run a marathon in my life 😂 and I don’t think it’s going to start next month. The last week I’ve been taking rest days if I still feel sore/tired and I generally don’t overexert myself while exercising. Don’t have a definite threshold but I hope that explains more 🙂
predicted NO
@Marsteralex ah yes, but Mana makes us do crazy things. I'll see YOU at the finish line! :P