Alex Lien's calibration
Grade: B+, Score: -1.18
Probability after bet
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Alex Lien bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
3 largest bets for each bucket
- Will Manifold reach 2000 daily active users (7d average) by July 1st?Ṁ103
- Will Manifold add a feature to enable users (e.g. Market Creators, etc.) to curate Related Markets before the end of June 2023?Ṁ75
- Will 10 or more Manifold users complete secondary market Mana transactions and record them on the below spreadsheet by June 2023?Ṁ68