Derivative of https://manifold.markets/Stralor/what-games-will-win-in-any-category.
Resolves YES if any game in that market that is above 60% in the day before the awards resolves NO, OR if any game below 30% resolves YES. I reserve the right to be a little subjective and ignore major bid spikes if they look like they're made exclusively to shift this market.
I will not bet in this market.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ49 | |
| 2 | Ṁ35 | |
| 3 | Ṁ16 | |
| 4 | Ṁ15 | |
| 5 | Ṁ13 |
The odds in total just made it a pretty good bet. How high are the chances that 8 60% chances resolve to no? Someone could do the math, but maybe with 70 or 80 it would be less easy to game. Same in the other direction.
And also too few people invested in the other marked, I was able to push some odds up or down a few percent to go into the "upset" range 🙃
Pizza Tower was at 63% yesterday and lost in the only category in which it was nominated. Resolving YES. In retrospect, this was a silly question.