Will an open source model beat GPT-4 in 2024?
Dec 31

Since the release of GPT-4 by OpenAI, the AI field has witnessed rapid advancements. Open source models, leveraging collaborative and transparent development, have been a significant part of this innovation. This question seeks to forecast whether an open source model will surpass GPT-4(-1106) in terms of capabilities by the end of 2024.

Criteria for Resolution:

  1. Performance Metrics: The open source model must demonstrate superior performance compared to GPT-4(-1106) in at least X standardized major benchmarks. [Will specify later]

  2. Public Acknowledgment: The superiority of the open source model over GPT-4 must be recognized by a consensus in the AI research community, evidenced through published papers, independent benchmarking reports, or notable industry acknowledgments.

  3. Open Source Verification: The model must be verifiably open source, with its codebase freely available to the public.

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Would Llama 3 be considered open source under the resolution criteria?

Looking good

predicts YES

"The model must be verifiably open source" - by "open source", do you mean just "available", or do you mean this (widely-accepted) definition: https://opensource.org/osd/

"The model must be verifiably open source, with its codebase freely available to the public." -- should also the model weights (parameters) be freely available? I recommend yes.

What does "its codebase freely available to the public" mean? Does a torrent containing just the weights (a la Mistral) count?

@dp I recommend it doesn't count, since from the weights alone, the model cannot be independently executed

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