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MANIFOLD
Will it snow in september in estonia?
20
Ṁ100Ṁ1.1k
resolved Oct 1
Resolved
NO

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the Estonian Environment Agency (Riigi Ilmateenistus) officially records any snowfall—including snow (lumi), snow grains, or sleet (lörts)—at any of its official meteorological monitoring stations in Estonia during the period of September 1, 2026, through September 30, 2026, inclusive.

Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

Verification details:

  • The primary source of truth is the Estonian Environment Agency (ilmateenistus.ee).

  • Resolution will be determined using the official September 2026 climate summary (usually published in early October) or real-time daily observation data from the agency.

  • Any officially recorded precipitation categorized as snow or sleet, even in trace amounts (jäljed), will trigger a YES resolution.

  • If the market creator intended a different year than 2026, they must edit the description to specify the year before the end of the month. Otherwise, the market will resolve based on the September 2026 timeframe.

Background

September is a transitional autumn month in Estonia, featuring average daily high temperatures of around 15°C (59°F) and lows of 9°C (48°F). The first snow typically does not arrive until late October or November. While the occurrence of snow or sleet (lörts) in September is historically rare, cold fronts from the north can occasionally bring brief wintry precipitation to the Baltic region in late September, which is tracked by the Estonian Environment Agency's network of observation stations.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.

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I won't profit take, but will note 9 percent would be playable for me if I was taking the other side

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Helsinki which is about the same latitude as Estonia and very precise, has in that range, within a week or so of September, met a much higher threshold of more than a centimeter on a specific chime of the clock three times a century. Given the lax standard for this market...

bought Ṁ40 NO

I have a new favorite word. "Lörts" . Finnish räntä isn't bad, and our word for slush, "loska"is almost good, but "lörts" is next level.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Hi, thanks for commenting, are you a fellow estonian?

@MarkoSammul no, accross the water, north