Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Anthropic officially restores or enables access to the Claude Fable 5 (or Claude Mythos 5) AI model for general users residing in Australia on or before July 17, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.

Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

To resolve to YES, the model must be legally and practically accessible to Australian users/organizations without requiring an individual US export license or US citizenship.

Sources for verification:

• If I can personally access it

Background

On June 9, 2026, Anthropic launched Claude Fable 5 (a highly advanced "Mythos-class" model) for general use, alongside Claude Mythos 5 for cybersecurity partners. Just three days later, on June 12, the US government issued an export control directive restricting foreign nationals from accessing the model due to national security and jailbreak concerns.

This directive forced Anthropic to completely disable access to both models for all users outside of authorized US-based organizations, locking out Australian developers, businesses, and Project Glasswing partners. While talks between Anthropic and the US government have reportedly progressed—resulting in a partial restore of Mythos 5 for select US critical infrastructure operators—Fable 5 has remained offline for international and general users. This market tracks whether these restrictions will be lifted to allow Australian access before the July 17 deadline.