The trump case will become boring and fade from the news. <50% search volume in 3 months
3
3
90
resolved May 5
Resolved
YES

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F0cqt90&hl=en

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ10
2Ṁ6
3Ṁ4
Sort by:

Eh, interest could stay high but it could be related to campaigning or other unrelated news stories, not the "trump case."

How do you plan to measure that specifically?

@KevinBurke everything is defined. Stupid objection

@EjueWuueuw The question specifically asks about the “Trump case” and then proposed to measure it by looking at “Trump” broadly. Surely you see the problem there?

@KevinBurke as I said any other outcome is a NO

@EjueWuueuw Right but how do you propose to measure “The Trump case isn’t in the news but Trump is in the news.” It’s impossible with the statistic you’ve proposed which is just Trump search volume.

@KevinBurke I answer that with NO

@EjueWuueuw It’s literally impossible to distinguish that from “The Trump case is in the news” which would be Yes!!! All you have is one statistic

@KevinBurke and the trial isn't important enough to have a search term. So it wins by default

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Can you please specify further how you'll measure the <50%. E.g. "at no point in time within [dates] will search interest peak above 50%, no matter granularity of view" or "90-day view will show no peaks above 50%"

@HenriThunberg anything besides an obvious outcome is NO