Will “Uncommitted” meet the delegate threshold in the Michigan Democratic primary on February 27?
44
592
830
resolved Feb 28
Resolved
YES

Resolves Yes if Uncommitted gets 15% or more of the vote statewide or in any district according to NYT.

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Going to look for a news source confirming this but this is likely to resolve Yes:

Going to look for a news source confirming this but this is likely to resolve Yes:

@MarkHamill Yeah, the New York Times confirms there are two uncommitted delegates with all of them allocated.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/02/27/us/elections/results-michigan-democratic-presidential-primary.html

This page has the vote breakdown by congressional district, but it's still missing a lot of the votes: https://mvic.sos.state.mi.us/votehistory/Index?type=C&electionDate=2-27-2024

@TimothyJohnson5c16 That page still has about 5000 votes less than the NY Times, but it shows MI-12 at 17.3%.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 It seems clear at this point the 6th and 12th are going to award delegates based on this data. I am going to resolve Yes.

I actually think there’s a chance that they don’t get delegates. The percentage has been dropping all night and it could well end up below 15% in all districts.

Michigan's congressional district map:
upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/31/Michigan_Congressional_Districts%2C_118th_Congress.svg

I still expect at least one of MI-6, MI-12, or MI-13 to surpass 15%. Those three districts are mostly made up of Washtenaw County (currently at 17%) and Wayne County (currently at 16%).

But I was probably a little overconfident to bid this up so high...

sold Ṁ46 YES

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Wayne County is up to 21% now.

@PlasmaBallin Yeah, I'm pretty confident in this now.

boughtṀ82NO

@riverwalk3 Something to share with the class?

bought Ṁ82 NO

@Joshua Look at NYT. At 15.2 and trending down. Most completed counties are below 15%.

sold Ṁ190 NO

@Joshua Nvm didn’t see the update

When I created this question, I had in mind 15% of the statewide vote. However, I didn’t actually put the word statewide in the description or title. Now it looks like they might meet the threshold for delegates in one part of the state while ending up below 15% overall.

Let’s see what happens, but if Uncommitted does get a delegate I would have a hard time resolving this No.

sold Ṁ123 NO

@MarkHamill Makes sense, do you want to change the description then, if it's not consistent with the question text?

@MarkHamill I assumed it meant the statewide vote as well, given the description. Is it actually possible for uncommitted to get a delegate? I assumed it was only possible for actual candidates to get delegates. Like in Nevada how "none of these options" is the same as not voting.

I (personally) think the best move is to edit the title to match the description, which seems very unambiguous, as well as the original intent

@PlasmaBallin I looked at the rules more closely and found that yes, Uncommitted does get an uncommitted delegate if it hits 15% in one district even if it doesn’t get any statewide (at-large) delegates. https://michigandems.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/2024-Michigan-Delegate-Selection-Plan-Following-Technical-Revisions.pdf

I respect @jacksonpolack‘s opinion to change the title, but I feel like “spirit of the market” is that this question is about whether Uncommitted gets delegates, which it seems like it will. I will edit the description.

I am not going to make any more trades in this market and will personally compensate anyone who lost mana up to 500 because of this confusion and DMs me a screenshot of their trades. I apologize if it messed up anyone’s league position.

@MarkHamill Yeah, I agree that if it's actually possible for uncommitted to get a delegate, then it makes more sense to go based on that than the original description.

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