Needs to be a nationally reputed poll aka Monmouth, Emerson, YouGov. Must poll at least 3 swing states and show Biden ahead in a majority, at least 3. So for a poll of 3 swing states he needs to be ahead in all 3, but if 6 swing states are polled he needs to lead in 4. It needs to be the same poll - it can’t be a Siena poll of Wisconsin and a Rasmussen poll of North Carolina.

EDIT: Swing states that count are:

Pennsylvania

Michigan

Wisconsin

North Carolina

Georgia

Nevada

Arizona

If a poll comes out that includes states not on this list that calls itself a “swing state poll,” Biden winning the majority of states from this list (=>3) resolves this Yes.

Example polls:

• Biden wins Nevada, Georgia, Wisconsin; Trump wins Iowa, Arizona, Ohio -> Yes (3/4)

• Biden wins Nevada, Georgia, New Hampshire, Virginia; Trump wins Arizona -> No (2/3)

• Biden wins Nevada, Georgia, New Hampshire -> Doesn’t count, too few states