Will a poll show Joe Biden ahead of Donald Trump in the swing states during February 2024?
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resolved Mar 1
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NO

Needs to be a nationally reputed poll aka Monmouth, Emerson, YouGov. Must poll at least 3 swing states and show Biden ahead in a majority, at least 3. So for a poll of 3 swing states he needs to be ahead in all 3, but if 6 swing states are polled he needs to lead in 4. It needs to be the same poll - it can’t be a Siena poll of Wisconsin and a Rasmussen poll of North Carolina.

EDIT: Swing states that count are:

Pennsylvania

Michigan

Wisconsin

North Carolina

Georgia

Nevada

Arizona

If a poll comes out that includes states not on this list that calls itself a “swing state poll,” Biden winning the majority of states from this list (=>3) resolves this Yes.

Example polls:

  • Biden wins Nevada, Georgia, Wisconsin; Trump wins Iowa, Arizona, Ohio -> Yes (3/4)

  • Biden wins Nevada, Georgia, New Hampshire, Virginia; Trump wins Arizona -> No (2/3)

  • Biden wins Nevada, Georgia, New Hampshire -> Doesn’t count, too few states

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This could be the last poll of the month. Biden leads in none of the states.

bought Ṁ400 NO from 14% to 10%
reposted

Adding this to the polling dashboard!

Are the example polls correct? They seem to all contradict with how the description says they would resolve

@FreshFrier What it’s trying to communicate is that those 7 are the only swing states that count, so disregard any others. The intent is to capture the spirit of the market (is Biden ahead in the Electoral College) which can only really be answered by a poll showing at least 3 swing states. If you have any recommendations on how to better express that, I’d be happy to take suggestions

Can you please list the swing states?

Thank you!

@SusanneinFrance Thanks, just elaborated more on what counts as a swing state and provided some examples

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