What will be the margin of victory be in Pennsylvania in the 2024 Presidential election?
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6
Ṁ6470
resolved Nov 23
100%75%
Trump by (1-2]%
0.2%
Harris by >4%
0.3%
Harris by (3-4]%
0.3%
Harris by (2-3]%
0.3%
Harris by (1-2]%
0.3%
Harris by (0-1]%
3%
Trump by (0-1]%
20%
Trump by (2-3]%
0.3%
Trump by (3-4]%
0.3%
Trump by >4%

Including third parties. Based on DDHQ results.

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@MarkHamill so…I kind of feel that this market got misresolved:

- DDHQ (as well as AP) says that Trump got 2% margin, and 2% falls under (1-2] category, not (2-3].

I suggest we wait for when they count all votes (now they seem to be at 98%), and then maybe re-resolve this?

@McLovin I resolved after calculating a lead for Trump of 2.0001% on both DDHQ and AP. The assumption is the outstanding votes are R leaning because McCormick’s race was called. But if the votes indeed shift towards Harris due to split ticketers, I will unresolve.

@MarkHamill ok, I mean…let’s wait for when they finish counting, then…we’ll see I guess

@McLovin All that’s left is 32k provisionals and Trump has increased to 2.1%

@MarkHamill well, it’s been 17 days since the election, and that’s where we seems to be:

- I guess we should re-resolve if it’s not too late..

@McLovin @mods can you please? I don’t see it as an option anymore

@MarkHamill I unresolved the market, you can wait as long as you wish, and resolve as you see fit.

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