Resolution Criteria
This market resolves YES if the temperature in New York City reaches 40°F or higher at any point during February 2026. Resolution will be determined by official temperature records from the National Weather Service (https://www.weather.gov/okx/), which provides hourly observations for NYC. The market resolves NO if the temperature never reaches 40°F during the month.
Background
In New York City during February, average daily high temperatures increase from 40°F to 45°F, making 40°F a threshold that typically occurs during the month. Early in February, afternoon temperatures tend to be mostly in the upper 30s°F while overnight and early morning lows dip into the mid to upper 20s°F. The warmest day of February historically reaches around 44.7°F, suggesting that 40°F is well within the normal range of February temperatures in NYC.
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@mods
000
CXUS51 KOKX 040428
CLMNYC
CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
1127 PM EST TUE MAR 03 2026
...................................
...THE CENTRAL PARK NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2026...
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1869 TO 2026
WEATHER OBSERVED NORMAL DEPART LAST YEAR'S
VALUE DATE(S) VALUE FROM VALUE DATE(S)
NORMAL
................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
RECORD
HIGH 78 02/21/2018
LOW -15 02/09/1934
HIGHEST 54 02/28 MM MM 57 02/25
LOWEST 3 02/08 MM MM 17 02/02
02/19
AVG. MAXIMUM 37.6 42.2 -4.6 40.9
AVG. MINIMUM 25.5 29.5 -4.0 29.1
MEAN 31.5 35.9 -4.4 35.0
DAYS MAX >= 90 0 0.0 0.0 0
DAYS MAX <= 32 6 4.4 1.6 4
DAYS MIN <= 32 20 17.7 2.3 20
DAYS MIN <= 0 0 0.0 0.0 0
PRECIPITATION (INCHES)
RECORD
MAXIMUM 6.87 1869
MINIMUM 0.46 1895
TOTALS 2.60 3.19 -0.59 2.60
DAILY AVG. 0.09 0.11 -0.02 0.09
DAYS >= .01 9 10.0 -1.0 11
DAYS >= .10 4 6.0 -2.0 8
DAYS >= .50 2 2.2 -0.2 2
DAYS >= 1.00 1 1.0 0.0 0
GREATEST
24 HR. TOTAL 1.76 02/06 TO 02/07 0.99 02/15 TO 02/16
STORM TOTAL 1.06 0.77
(MM/DD(HH)) MM
SNOWFALL (INCHES)
TOTALS 22.3 10.1 12.2 7.1
LIQUID EQUIV 2.20 1.00 1.20 0.70
SINCE 7/1 43.4 24.4 19.0 MM
LIQUID 7/1 4.34 2.40 1.94 MM
SNOWDEPTH AVG. 5 0
DAYS >= TRACE 9 3.2 5.8 9
DAYS >= 1.0 3 2.2 0.8 3
GREATEST
SNOW DEPTH 14 02/23 3 02/09
02/24
02/12
24 HR TOTAL MM MM
STORM TOTAL 10.9 3.0
(MM/DD(HH)) MM
DEGREE DAYS
HEATING TOTAL 931 816 115 833
SINCE 7/1 3708 3374 334 MM
COOLING TOTAL 0 0 0 0
SINCE 1/1 0 0 0 MM
................................................................
WIND (MPH)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 6.5
HIGHEST WIND SPEED/DIRECTION 28/300 DATE 02/07
HIGHEST GUST SPEED/DIRECTION 46/310 DATE 02/07
AVERAGE RH (PERCENT) 61
WEATHER CONDITIONS. NUMBER OF DAYS WITH
THUNDERSTORM 0 MIXED PRECIP 0
HEAVY RAIN 0 RAIN 0
LIGHT RAIN 4 FREEZING RAIN 0
LT FREEZING RAIN 0 HAIL 0
HEAVY SNOW 1 SNOW 3
LIGHT SNOW 9 SLEET 0
FOG 14 FOG W/VIS <= 1/4 MILE 3
HAZE 10
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
$$