Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if the temperature in New York City reaches 40°F or higher at any point during February 2026. Resolution will be determined by official temperature records from the National Weather Service (https://www.weather.gov/okx/), which provides hourly observations for NYC. The market resolves NO if the temperature never reaches 40°F during the month.

Background

In New York City during February, average daily high temperatures increase from 40°F to 45°F, making 40°F a threshold that typically occurs during the month. Early in February, afternoon temperatures tend to be mostly in the upper 30s°F while overnight and early morning lows dip into the mid to upper 20s°F. The warmest day of February historically reaches around 44.7°F, suggesting that 40°F is well within the normal range of February temperatures in NYC.