This market will resolve positively if, at any point in time before January 15, 2024 at 11:59PM ET, Russia is no longer in total control of "Lenina vulytsia" in Tokmak, Zaporizka oblast.
The primary resolution source for this market is the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). As of August, there have been reports of partisan fighting in Tokmak in Zaporizka oblast. On the ISW's interactive map, the area is shaded in red to indicate Russian control and delineated with blue bars to show Ukrainian partisan warfare. Any area shaded in red on the ISW's interactive map will be considered under Russian control, regardless of partisan warfare. If any update on ISW's interactive map indicates that any part of "Lenina vulytsia" is not under Russian control by January 15th, 2024 at 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve as "Yes". If the totality of "Lenina vulytsia" remains under Russian control (shaded red on ISW) through the market end date, this market will resolve as "No". End date: 01/15/2024.
Just made a related continuation market - https://manifold.markets/EricBurns/will-ukraine-control-tokmak-by-the