Will there be a US government shutdown before the end of 2025?
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30k
2025
56%
chance

The last US government shutdown was between Dec 2018 and Jan 2019. There were also government shutdowns in 2018 and 2013. Will the US government shutdown by the end of 2024 for any amount of time?

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19 legislative days left…

predicts YES

@parhizj Before what?

predicts YES

@BTE Before funding runs out again

bought Ṁ100 NO from 67% to 60%

@MarcusAbramovitch does a partial shutdown cause this to resolve YES?

Maybe

@BTE , I'm interested in a large position on this market. Given I bet this up to 70% and you bet it down to 31%, are you interested in a large bet at 50%?

predicts YES

@MarcusAbramovitch Ill do up to 30000 Mana (I know I have a larger portfolio so I don't consider you a "wimp" or anything to want less but I do think >10k mana is good)

predicts NO

@MarcusAbramovitch I don’t have enough conviction this won’t happen at any point during this congress. Low chance this year since McCarthy already had his big win for the year. Maybe next year. Why do you feel so strongly it’s a YES?

predicts YES

@BTE I think American government is becoming more dysfunctional

predicts NO

@MarcusAbramovitch Actually this includes a year of the 119th congress.

predicts YES

@BTE Also, I'm generally looking to put large bets on when I have disagreements with others with large portfolios

predicts YES

@BTE If we ever have differing probabilities on other markets, I would be happy to put a large bet on. It's very hard to get large amounts of mana down