This question resolves to YES if there are >=86,750 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by year-end, using the cumulative confirmed cases of March 31st 2023, from Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox
Note on resolution:
Our World in Data sometimes updates late, sometimes for several days. I am going to check on April 1st at 12:00PM EST. The latest data point will be the number I go with, even if the date for that number is earlier than Feb 28th (For example: If on April 1st, I see that March 27th is the last data point showing 86,499 cumulative cases, this question will resolve NO.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ548 | |
| 2 | Ṁ440 | |
| 3 | Ṁ63 | |
| 4 | Ṁ38 | |
| 5 | Ṁ22 |
I'm very happy with how I traded this market. I thought there was quite a high probability it was going to be close and a few days ago I picked up cheap no shares that I sold at low prices. I wish I had more mana available to reallt express always eat I thought odds were.
Nicely done @firstuserhere recognizing the event.
@MarcusAbramovitch I am very unhappy I dumped my shared too early. Should have been bolder and stuck to my guns. Lesson learned.
@cc6 Can’t rule out a bug. It’s still 86724 as of March 28 on WHO. OWID’s numbers have been changing weirdly without any apparent changes on WHO.
@firstuserhere It’s changed again. Been changing a lot during the day for the last few days.
@NicoDelon i think by then there'll be an update (say 4 more) and the fluctuations around the new number won't make it drop below 86750
86,724 according to the WHO today (presumably inclusive of March 27).
@NicoDelon Sorry to be a pest about this but the figure on OWID for 3/28 (86714) is different from WhO (86724). @MarcusAbramovitch can you confirm that you’ll just look at the number that appears on April 1 without bothering to check if it is correct?
@MarcusAbramovitch Thanks for confirming! I don't know how they're actually fetching the data (they told me it's done automatically every hour) and where the discrepancy is coming from, but this is going to cost me mana, dang.
@NicoDelon No problem I aim to be as clear as possible with my markets and how I will resolve them.
@NicoDelon One weird thing though is that when I checked this morning the dashboard displayed data through March 24 but now it seems stuck on March 22.