This question resolves to YES if there are >=85,500 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by year-end, using the cumulative confirmed cases of Jan 31st 2023, from Our World in Data:
https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox
Note on resolution:
Our World in Data sometimes updates late, sometimes for several days. I am going to check on February 1st at 12:00PM EST. The latest data point will be the number I go with, even if the date for that number is earlier than Jan 31st (For example: If on February 1st, I see that Jan 29th is the last data point showing 84,999 cumulative cases, this question will resolve NO.
Close date updated to 2023-02-01 11:59 am
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@MarcusAbramovitch check if @egroj hasn't already created the same, to avoid duplicates
@AllanLacy I'm going to check at exactly 12:00PM on Feb 1st. OWID may update past numbers. They may not. But whatever they do, that's the number I'm going with.
@MarcusAbramovitch Since you extended the close date, it would be way more interesting to wait until the data for January 31st its updated!!!
@AllanLacy that's not why I extended the close date. It's to allow people to trade it until the resolution
@MarcusAbramovitch yes, I understand....just saying it would be more interesting to see if the predictions were right/wrong based on the number of cases, not just because the data is delayed.