Will there be >=85,500 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by the end of Jan 31st 2023?
Resolved
NO

This question resolves to YES if there are >=85,500 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by year-end, using the cumulative confirmed cases of Jan 31st 2023, from Our World in Data:
https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox

Note on resolution:
Our World in Data sometimes updates late, sometimes for several days. I am going to check on February 1st at 12:00PM EST. The latest data point will be the number I go with, even if the date for that number is earlier than Jan 31st (For example: If on February 1st, I see that Jan 29th is the last data point showing 84,999 cumulative cases, this question will resolve NO.

Close date updated to 2023-02-01 11:59 am

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MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitch
MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitch

The final number is 85459. Resolves NO

MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitch

2 hours until close. I will be checking regularly for updates. Feel free to comment an update and I'll check

JimAusman avatar
Jim Ausman

404 Not Found

JimAusman avatar
Jim Ausman

@JimAusman I was able to find it by searching though, so I am good.

cc6 avatar
cc6predicted YES at 3%

first time i ever wished a disease on people

MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitchpredicted NO at 12%

If you liked this market, I'm going to make a bunch more!

AllanLacy avatar
Allan Lacypredicted YES at 12%

@MarcusAbramovitch check if @egroj hasn't already created the same, to avoid duplicates

AllanLacy avatar
Allan Lacypredicted YES at 12%
AllanLacy avatar
Allan Lacypredicted YES at 12%

Nevermind ...it was updated anyways.

I'm sinking with the ship...

MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitchpredicted NO at 12%

@AllanLacy I'm going to check at exactly 12:00PM on Feb 1st. OWID may update past numbers. They may not. But whatever they do, that's the number I'm going with.

MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitchsold Ṁ193 of NO

I wouldn't be nearly as confident as Pat Myron seems to be

AllanLacy avatar
Allan Lacypredicted YES at 11%

@MarcusAbramovitch Since you extended the close date, it would be way more interesting to wait until the data for January 31st its updated!!!

MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitchpredicted NO at 11%

@AllanLacy that's not why I extended the close date. It's to allow people to trade it until the resolution

MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitchpredicted NO at 11%

I was very clear on the resolution criteria and I'm not going to change them now.

AllanLacy avatar
Allan Lacypredicted YES at 11%

@MarcusAbramovitch yes, I understand....just saying it would be more interesting to see if the predictions were right/wrong based on the number of cases, not just because the data is delayed.