Will the average US price of regular gas exceed $5/gallon by June 1st 2023?
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NO1D
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As measured by: https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_price
I'm making several of these types of markets. While I expect to unfortunately create a bunch of arbitrage opportunity, I think they are somewhat useful (the first thing I came up with) as a proxy for the economic impacts of a possible Spring/Summer escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, at least impacts to the US/rest of the world.
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@JustNo I think the idea is that if there's arbitrage that means there's some degree unnecessary complexity -- it's not just a single market with YES-NO for each dimension of what's being predicted. That means more work for everyone, which as a byproduct would be expected to reduce overall efficiency.