I think it’s unfortunate that there was even a clarification question asked on whether the satellite launch counted as a missile test, and no response before the YES resolution.

I also bought NO on the impression that it didn’t count. Like Dennis posted, even the Wikipedia page doesn’t list it.

How is this a missile test, unless all rockets count as missile? And if that’s the case, can we please update the title and description for future markets?

@DanMan314 Im sorry. Manifold is giving be a ton of notifications. I try to prioritize comments, sometimes they slip. I'm not going to be perfect. I have consistently resolved copies according to the polymarket resolution. I think it would be horrible precedent to overturn that.

@MarcusAbramovitch I empathize with your position here, and I don’t think the resolution was in bad faith, but I do think especially on markets where the description is not specific about deferring to Polymarket, you are responsible for an accurate choice.

I think you agree with this in principle given the Guatemalan election market.

It’s unfortunate, because both articles you link sort of categorically lump the sat launch into their “missile tests” reporting but never explicitly refer to it as such. Polymarket wasn’t highly traded and so it probably just slipped by without being contested - I’m not sure, I don’t really know how UMA works beyond skimming their docs.

@DanMan314 someone asked for their liquidity back and so I gave it since it was official and UMA was just verifying

@MarcusAbramovitch Any comment on why this was resolved YES? Market was at 20% and only had recent NO buys. No mention of missile tests in the news in past few days, and no mention of anything on the wiki page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests.

@Dennis5a87 UMA oracle voted yes to resolve the polymarket question.

@Dennis5a87 The question was Missile test, not successful. They launched a test.

@MarcusAbramovitch I'm not disputing wether it was succesful or not. As far as I can find there wasn't any missle test in the last few days, and clearly seeing as the market was polling at 20% neither did the market. Which unsuccesful missle test are you refering to?

@Dennis5a87 On Thursday, North Korea's National Aerospace Development Administration (NADA) conducted the second launch of reconnaissance satellite Malligyong-1 aboard the new-type carrier rocket Chollima-1.

this is the wire
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2023/08/26/709640/US-accuse-Russia-China-block-UN-Security-Council-unified-response-North-Korea-missile-tests-

Russia, China clash with US at UN over North Korean missile tests

The United States ambassador to the United Nations has accused China and Russia of blocking a unified UN Security Council response to North Korea's missile tests.

@Dennis5a87 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66601760

BBC report on

it

North Korea's second spy satellite launch fails

It appears the rocket carrying the satellite flew further than during the previous attempt.

@MarcusAbramovitch I have a hard time understanding how a failed satellite launch can be seen as a "missile", let alone seeing it as a missile TEST. Once again, I feel supported by the market's movements, since the supposed launch on thursday it's moved down from 38% to 21%.

NK has announced a satellite launch attempt. Will this count as a missile test?

AP has an article titled "North Korea’s Kim watches cruise missile launches as US, South Korean troops begin annual drills": https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-kim-cruise-missile-launches-e5786d8f60adcb9a66e93086751de638?user_email=6b04284e4d00370f16d3dac0a626e01bf24d86e4d6995646867da6aa680488d0

North Korea's Kim watches cruise missile launches as US, South Korean troops begin annual drills

North Korean media say leader Kim Jong Un observed the test-firing of strategic cruise missiles as the U.S. and South Korean militaries kicked off major annual drills that the North views as an invasion rehearsal.

@RobertCousineau sourcing/confidence on the test date within is explicitly weak though.